The ITV4 horse racing cameras head to Ascot racecourse this Saturday to take in four races, with one of the highlights being the ultra-competitive tote Victoria Cup (4:05). Andy Newton gives you the key Victoria Cup trends and tips to help you find the winner of the 28 runner race.
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Did You Know? – 15 of the last 18 (83%) Victoria Cup winners were aged 5 or younger.
Find The Winner Of The Victoria Cup With Our Key Trends
4.05 – tote Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4
- 15/18 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
- 15/18 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 15/18 – Aged 5 or younger
- 15/18 – Had won no more than 3 times
- 14/18 – Had won over 7f before
- 12/18 – Carried 8-10 or less
- 11/18 – Unplaced favourites
- 10/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 9/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 9/18 – Had run at Ascot before (6 winners)
- 5/18 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
- 4/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 12 years
- The last 8 winners came from a double-figure draw
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Victoria Cup Tips and Best Bets
Recent Run Key – Having raced in the last 5 weeks is a big trend, with 15 of the last 18 winners fitting the bill here. Of the main players, Dark Shift, One Ruler and Magical Morning are three big names that come here off longer lay-offs so will need to defy this stat.
Look For Horses Aged 5 Or Younger – With 15 of the last 18 winners aged 5 or younger this is a good age cut off point. Most of the big fancies tick this stat, but Chiefofchiefs (9) and Accidental Agent (8) are two names that don’t.
8-10 Or Less In Weight – Being a handicap then the weight carried is another trend to note with 12 of the last 18 winners having 8-10 or less on their backs. This actually is a negative for the top 17 on the card – meaning if this stat is to be upheld you can rule out a fair few, to leave just 11 (of the 28 runners).
Respect A Double-Figure Draw – Yes, this trend has to be taken with a pinch of salt as there is always 20+ runners in the field so the % call will always favour the higher numbers as there is simply more of them in the race.
However, with ALL of the last 8 winners hailing from draws 10 or higher it’s still one to respect. Some that fall down there are Dark Shift (drawn 4), Path Of Thunder (5) and Aratus (9).
BEST BETS – Two horses that tick a lot of the main are THE TURPINATOR and ALREHB.
THE TURPINATOR @ 14/1 with 888Sport was a good winner two runs back at Kempton on th AW and was only beaten 2 3/4 lengths at Newbury last time over a mile. The drop back to 7f is a plus and it’s interesting trainer Tom Ward has booked jockey George Rooke to take off a handy 3lbs. Draw 12 will give him options and he’s got just 8-6 in weight to carry.
ALREHB @ 16/1 with 888Sport is antoher that gets in here with a low weight of just 8-6. He’ll have the experienced Franny Norton in the saddle and a high draw in 24 looks ideal too. A recent second at Haydock ove this trip was another good effort and prior to that had won twice on the all weather over this trip. With just one run on the turf (6 on the AW), you feel this Philippart De Foy runner could have more to offer on the green stuff.
Note: Odds are subject to change.
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