The just concluded UN Summit has listed climate change as a key area requiring special attention.
Indeed, the UN needs to reboot a participative global climate leadership and focus evidently lost following the energy crisis caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Specifically, the UN needs to reclaim independent leadership of COP forums, currently under strong influence of oil-producing interests.
Since 2022, leading countries have softened their climate policies to prioritise immediate energy security needs (availability and affordability) to contain inflation and economic instability, which have occasioned political uncertainties.
Oil and gas supply chains have been reprioritised while delaying or suspending major renewable energy projects, with climate agenda increasingly becoming an avoided subject in political forums. In an apparent global climate leadership vacuum, the oil and gas players have taken it upon themselves to define an energy transition path, with peak-oil demand conveniently repositioned to a distant 2050, to apparently permit new oil and gas production investments.
Correctly estimating the peak-oil demand date is important in mapping out a realistic energy transition trajectory that permits smooth entry of renewable energy and exit of fossil fuels, but this estimation needs to be done independently.
In the past couple of years, the renewable energy momentum has come under threat from geopolitical interests and economic competition as China and the West compete for control of critical inputs, and export markets of electric vehicles (EVs), solar and wind implements. Deterrent tariff wars are reducing the speed of renewable energy affordability and uptake across the world. UN agencies will need to develop workable protocols for global renewable energy development and trade. Containing global conflicts is an urgent task for a repurposed UN. In the absence of global security and peace, energy transition becomes a longer, expensive and disjointed effort. As observed from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, wars and political turmoil can significantly disrupt energy supply chains while derailing entry of climate-friendly initiatives and investments.
As regards the Global South, which include Africa and Kenya, it is important that we take full responsibility for our climate destinies and stop crying “climate-victims.” Improved political and economic governance of resources will improve the Global South’s capacity to develop sustainable and resilient food security systems and affordable clean energy, as we attract essential green investments and funding.
Enhanced governance of extractive sectors, especially in respect of critical energy minerals should be prioritised to add value to national budgets. And for the Global South countries with oil and gas resources, revenues should be used to develop climate-resilient socio-economic programmes for future generations.
