For the third time in less than three years, James Harden wants a trade.
Harden opted into the $35.6 million final year of his contract with Philadelphia to facilitate a trade out of town. That has fueled widespread speculation, but only a handful of teams appear to be pushing forward to get a deal done. Harden is not going to bring back a Gobert-esque haul to the 76ers for a few reasons, primarily he cannot be extended by whatever team trades for him — Harden is a rental. He will be a free agent in 2024 (and about to enter his age 35 season). Teams are not giving up much for a guy who can walk in a year.
There is real pressure on Sixers decision maker Daryl Morey to get back quality in this trade — he has Joel Embiid in his MVP-level prime
and Harden was Morey’s big play to build a championship roster around his elite center. That turned out to be a swing and a miss. If Philly stumbles this season after trading away Harden, does Embiid get antsy and think about getting out? Philadelphia realizes they can’t miss this time, meaning it will not accept a terrible, lowball offer just to make Harden happy. That doesn’t easily mesh with what teams will offer for a rental. It’s not crazy to suggest Harden will start the season in a 76ers uniform because the trade offers are not good enough.
What are those offers? Who might trade for Harden? Here are the top three contenders, plus a couple of “what ifs” thrown in for fun.
1) Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are the clear early frontrunners to land Harden, something league sources confirmed to NBC Sports. This doesn’t mean a deal is close, but the sides had been talking since back at the Draft (about possible Tobias Harris trades) and the conversations floated over to Harden. There is a dialogue between the teams, Harden reportedly wants to be there
, and historically in the NBA elite stars get where they want to go.
Heading to the Clippers works for Harden on a few levels. First, he gets to go home to Southern California where he grew up. Second, he gets to play for a potential contender (if everyone could just stay healthy). Third, the Clippers need a point guard.
The Clippers have talked about largely running it back this season and giving the Paul George/Kawhi Leonard era one more year to get it done. Trading for Harden fits right into that mold.
The Clippers can assemble a trade package with two of Marcus Morris, Norman Powell and Robert Covington, plus a future first-round pick (2028). The contending 76ers will want more and ask for Terance Mann. The Clippers are reportedly hesitant to give up players they really like in this trade — such as Mann — but there is a deal to be made. (As a side note, the Clippers will not do a George for Harden trade, Los Angeles wants to create a big three of their own to make a run at Denver and Phoenix, not swap out one older good-when-healthy player for another.)
This is by far the trade that makes the most sense.
2) New York Knicks
The Knicks were one of the teams initially linked to Harden when his trade request was announced. However, if New York wasn’t willing to push all its chips in to get a much younger Donovan Mitchell a year ago, how eager would it be to go after Harden? Well…
Heard Knicks’ interest in James Harden, at the moment, is far from uniform throughout the organization. Clippers have strong interest in trading for Harden. Would assume LAC’s interest is stronger than NYK’s presently. ESPN 1st reported Knicks’ interest in trading for Harden
— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) June 29, 2023
New York might be open to Harden coming to Madison Square Garden — on a one-year test — if they can get a deal on their terms. New York will not want to give up much in the trade. Evan Fournier is a given, but then it gets tough. Would the Knicks surrender RJ Barrett to get a trade done?
Also, how exactly do Jalen Brunson and Harden fit together?
3) Miami Heat
Is James Harden ready to pass the Heat’s legendary conditioning test?
Ignoring that question momentarily, the Heat need another shot creator and scoring option (as was evident in the NBA Finals), and Harden fills that bill. Harden and Bam Adebayo would form a dynamic pick-and-roll combination, and the Heat have plenty of shooters to surround his playmaking.
The trade works with Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo and a future first-round pick. Miami would like to hold on to Herro and prefer a trade more like Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin and a pick. That may not be enough for Philly.
Miami is in a holding pattern, waiting to see what happens with the Trail Blazers and Damian Lillard — the Heat’s preferred target. How long Miami can wait and if they will turn their attention to Harden remain to be seen, but he is not the Heat’s top priority as we enter free agency.
What if… the Boston Celtics
The Celtics have an elite four-fifths of a starting lineup — Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Robert Williams III/Al Horford — and adding Harden would make them a formidable offense. With Marcus Smart gone, there is a hole at the point guard spot. The trade can be made with Malcolm Brogdon as the core and more (Robert Williams works, but the Sixers don’t really need another center). It’s come up in fan speculation, but Boston isn’t stupid and would not trade 26-year-old entering his prime Brown for 33-and-fading Harden, that is not on the table. Any trade between these teams is a long shot because Philly is not likely to trade Harden within the division.
What if… the Milwaukee Bucks
Going into an offseason where Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are free agents (and Jrue Holiday can be extended in the fall), the Bucks’ biggest problem is they are getting old and expensive fast, and may need to pivot in the middle of Giannis Antetokounmpo’s prime. How exactly does trading for Harden help with that? A Holiday for Harden straight up swap works (and would work for the 76ers), but considering Holiday is an All-Defensive team level player, does that trade even make Milwaukee better? And then there’s this.
What if… the Los Angeles Lakers
The second news came down Thursday that the Lakers were waiving Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba, this trade went out the window. Those guys were the trade value Los Angeles could afford to give up. This trade just does not work for a Lakers team bringing its core back, the Lakers aren’t trading LeBron James or Anthony Davis, they aren’t sign-and-trading Austin Reaves to Philly (and the Lakers would still need to throw in more), and who else on the Lakers roster would the 76ers want?
What if… the Houston Rockets
Rumors about Harden pushing to get to Houston were everywhere around the league for months, but things cooled recently. That is not changing now. Houston has other targets — primarily Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks — and Harden is uninterested. It doesn’t matter how the trade would work if both sides don’t want it.
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