skew
Is the bottom in? Data shows Bitcoin derivatives entering the ‘capitulation’ zone
Analysts love to issue price predictions and it seems that 9 out of 10 times they are wrong. For example, how many times did analysts say “we will never see Bitcoin back at X price again,” only to see it plunge well below that level a few months later? It doesn’t matter how experienced a person is or how connected in the industry. Bitcoin’s (BTC) 55% volatility must be taken seriously and the impact this has on altcoins is usually stronger during capitulation-like movements. I was undeniably wrong about how much crypto could fall from macro contagion. I remain bullish on the space as a whole and think it is the most important mega-trend of our times. I joined CT during 2018 and I will be here with you guys in the coming yrs, bull or bear. — Zhu Su (@zhusu) Jan...
2 key Bitcoin trading indicators suggest BTC is ready for a 62% upside move
Bitcoin (BTC) has been below $45,000 for 14 days and is currently 40% below the $69,000 all-time high. This movement holds similarities to late-September 2021, when Bitcoin price flat-lined for 11 days and was 36% below the previous $64,900 all-time high on April 14. Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView To understand whether the current price momentum mimics late September, traders should start by analyzing the Bitcoin futures contracts premium, which is also known as “basis.” Unlike a perpetual contract, these fixed-calendar futures do not have a funding rate, so their price will differ vastly from regular spot exchanges. By measuring the expense gap between futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of bullishness in the market. Excessive...
Bitcoin price bounces to $41.5K, but derivatives data shows traders lack confidence
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly reached its lowest level in five months this Monday at $39,650, marking a 42.6% drawdown from the all-time high present on Nov 22, 2022. Some argue that a “crypto winter” has already begun citing the $2.1 billion leverage-long aggregate crypto futures contracts that were liquidated over the past seven days. Bitcoin/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView The descending channel guiding Bitcoin’s negative performance for the past 63 days indicates that traders should expect sub-$40,000 prices by February. Confidence from investors continued to decline after the United States Federal Reserve’s December FOMC session on Jan. 5. The monetary policy authority showed commitment to decrease its balance sheet and increase interest rates in 2022. On Jan. 5, Kazakhstan’s political ...
Here’s why Ethereum traders could care less about ETH’s current weakness
Since hitting an all-time high at $4,870 on Nov. 10, Ether (ETH) price has been posting lower lows over the past 50 days. If this downtrend continues, the lower trendline support suggests that the altcoin will bottom at $3,600. Still, derivatives data is signaling that pro traders are not concerned about the seemingly bearish market structure. Ether/USD price on FTX. Source: TradingView Notice how the price peaks are getting lower on the 12-hour time frame as mounting regulatory concerns drive investors away from the sector. In a press conference on Dec. 17, Russia’s Central Bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that banning crypto in the country is “quite doable.” Nabiullina cited crypto’s frequent use for illegal operations and significant risks for retail inve...
