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This key Ethereum price metric shows ETH traders aren’t as bearish as they appear
Ether (ETH) is down 25% in just a month and even the recent upgrade to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus on the Ropsten testnet failed to move the altcoin’s price. The merge is meant to address energy-use issues and open a path for higher transaction output, but the actual full transition for the Ethereum network is not expected until later in the year. Ethereum developer Parithosh Jayanthi also noted that some bugs on the PoS implementation emerged, but those should be fixed over the coming weeks. Luckily for Ethereum, two of its top competitors recently faced challenges of their own. The Solana (SOL) network faced the fifth outage in 2022 after no new blocks were produced for four hours on June 1. Every decentralized application was halted until the validators were able to addr...
Bitcoin price broke to the upside, but where are all the leveraged long traders?
This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) chart leaves little doubt that the symmetrical triangle pattern is breaking to the upside after constricting the price for nearly 20 days. However, derivatives metrics tell a completely different story because professional traders are unwilling to add leveraged positions and are overcharging for downside protection. BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView Will BTC reverse course even as macroeconomic conditions crumble? Whether BTC turns the $30,000 to $31,000 level into support depends to some degree on how global markets perform. The last time U.S. stock markets faced a seven-week consecutive downtrend was over a decade ago. New home sales in the U.S. declined for the fourth straight month, which is also the longest streak since October 2010. ...
Bitcoin price action decouples from stock markets, but not in a good way
This week the stock markets began to flash a little green and Bitcoin (BTC) is decoupling from traditional markets but not in a good way. The cryptocurrency is down 3% while the Nasdaq Composite tech-heavy stock market index is up 3.1%. May 27 data from the United States Commerce Department shows that the personal savings rate fell to 4.4% in April to reach the lowest level since 2008 and crypto traders are worried that worsening global macroeconomic conditions could add to investors’ aversion to risky assets. For example, Invesco QQQ Trust, a $160 billion tech company-based U.S. exchange-traded fund, is down 23% year-to-date. Meanwhile the iShares MSCI China ETF, a $6.1 billion tracker of the Chinese shares, has declined 20% in 2022. To get a clearer picture of how crypto traders are posi...
Descending channel pattern and weak futures data continue to constrain Ethereum price
Despite bouncing from a 45-day low on April 30, Ether (ETH) price is still stuck in a descending channel and the subsequent 9% gain over the past four days was just enough to get the altcoin to test the pattern’s $2,870 resistance. Ether/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView Federal Reserve monetary policy continues to be a major influence on crypto prices and this week’s volatility is most likely connected to comments from the FOMC. On May 4, the United States Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, which is the biggest hike in 22 years. Although it was a widely expected and unanimous decision, the monetary authority said it would reduce its $9 trillion asset base starting in June. Chairman Jeremy Powell explained that the Federal Res...
Pro traders turn into bears after Ethereum price dropped to $3,200
After a 42% rally over a three-week period, Ether (ETH) peaked at $3,580 on April 3 and since then, a 12% correction to $3,140 has taken place. Tech giants launching their own smart contract platforms and regulatory uncertainty might have impacted investors’ sentiment and derivatives metrics also show worsening conditions that confirm professional traders’ shift toward a bearish sentiment. Ether/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView On April 6, the Financial Times reported that Meta is reportedly planning to introduce virtual currency and lending services. This move is aimed at exploring alternative sources of revenue for Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram and Messenger. United States Senator Pat Toomey, the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, also drafted a bill proposing a r...
Bitcoin price drops to $43.5K, but data and BTC’s market structure project strength
Bitcoin (BTC) has been struggling to break the $47,000 resistance and even with April 6’s drop below $44,000, there is still mounting evidence that the market structure is healthy. On Dec. 3, 2021, Bitcoin initiated a 25.6% correction that lasted 18 hours and culminated with a $42,360 low. Four months later, the price remained 18% below the $56,650, closing on Dec. 2, 2021. Much has changed over that period, and hard evidence comes from other sections of the sector. Between February 15 and April 2, 2022, enterprise software development firm MicroStrategy announced the acquisition of 4,197 Bitcoin. Inflows to Canadian Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also hit an all-time high, according to data from Glassnode. These investment vehicles in Canada have increased their holdings by 6,...
Pro traders curb their enthusiasm until Ethereum confirms $3,400 as support
Ether (ETH) price jumped 11% between March 26 and March 29 to reach $3,480, which is the highest level in 82 days. Currently, the price is down 9% year-to-date but does data support the belief that the altcoin has resumed its uptrend toward a new all-time high? Institutional investors seem excited that the CoinShares Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report revealed on Tuesday that the exchange-listed crypto products inflows reached the highest level in three months. Data showed that investment products for digital assets saw net deposits of $193 million last week. At the same time, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, an executive office of the President of the United States, launched a study to offset energy use related to digital assets. Furthermore, on March 9, U.S. Preside...
How professional Ethereum traders place bullish ETH price bets while limiting losses
Being bullish on Ether (ETH) over the past four months did not pay off as its price dropped 44% from $4,600. The decentralized finance (DeFi) applications growth that fueled the rally faded away, partially due to network congestion and average transaction fees of $30 and higher. The cool-off period can also be attributed to excessive expectations as the fee burn mechanism implemented in August 2021 with the London hard fork. After drastically reducing the daily net issuance, investors jumped to the conclusion that Ether would become “ultrasound money.” The Ethereum network burned more ETH over the last 24 hours than was issued by both the PoW (eth1) and PoS (eth2) networks. This is the first time this has happened since EIP-1559 went live less than 3 months ago. ETH is ultra so...
Bitcoin derivatives metrics reflect traders’ neutral sentiment, but anything can happen
Bitcoin’s (BTC) last daily close above $45,000 was 66 days ago, but more importantly, the current $39,300 level was first seen on Jan. 7, 2021. The 13 months of boom and bust cycles culminated with BTC price hitting $69,000 on Nov. 10, 2021. It all started with the VanEck spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund being rejected by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Nov. 12, 2020. Even though the decision was largely expected, the regulator was harsh and direct on the rationale backing the denial. Curiously, nearly one year later, on Nov. 10, 2021, cryptocurrency markets rallied to an all-time high market capitalization at $3.11 trillion right as U.S. inflation as measured by the CPI index hit 6.2%, a 30-year high. Inflation also had negative consequences on risk ma...
Bitcoin’s sub-$40K range trading and mixed data reflect traders’ uncertainty
The phrase “hindsight is 20/20” is a perfect expression for financial markets because every price chart pattern and analysis is obvious after the movement has occurred. For example, traders playing the Feb. 28 pump that took Bitcoin (BTC) above $43,000 should have known that the price would face some resistance. Considering that the market had previously rejected at $44,500 on multiple instances, calling for a retest below $40,000 made perfect sense, right? Bitcoin/USD at Coinbase. Source: TradingView This is a common fallacy, known as “post hoc” in which one event is said to be the cause of a later event merely because it had occurred earlier. The truth is, one will always find analysts and pundits calling for continuation and rejection after a significant price move. Usually ...
Ethereum price moves toward $3K, but pro traders choose not to add leverage
Even though Ether (ETH) price bounced over 20% from the $2,300 low on Feb. 22, derivatives data shows that investors are still cautious. To date, Ether’s price is down 24% for the year, and key overhead resistances lay ahead. Ethereum’s most pressing issue has been high network transaction fees and investors are increasingly worried that this will remain an issue even after the network integrates its long-awaited upgrades. For example, the 7-day network average transaction fee is still above $18, while the network value locked in smart contracts (TVL) decreased 25% to $111 billion between Jan. 1 and Feb. 27. This negative indicator could partially explain why Ether has been down-trending since early February. Ether/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView The above channel current...
Bitcoin price closes in on $40K, but pro traders are still skeptical
The Bitcoin (BTC) daily price chart seems to be making a steady recovery pattern, but some concerning indicators are coming from derivatives markets. At the moment, the futures and options markets are showing a lack of confidence from Bitcoin pro traders, but there’s a positive spin to the data. Bitcoin price at Coinbase, USD. Source: TradingView The road to $40,000 seems uncomfortably predictable, and cryptocurrency traders usually call it “manipulation” when such price movements happen. If you #bitcoin around that region, just be careful. A picture speaks a thousands words and I think mine says it all. Make it or break it time around the corner for #btc. This weekend is weekly close & monthly close as well so expect volatility and manipulation.#Crypto pic.twitter.co...
