Options
Here’s how pro traders could use Bitcoin options to buy the $20K BTC dip
Bitcoin hit a 2022 low at $17,580 on June 18 and many traders are hopeful that this was the bottom, but (BTC) has been unable to produce a daily close above $21,000 for the past six days. For this reason, traders are uncomfortable with the current price action and the threat of many CeFi and DeFi companies dealing with the loss of user funds and possible insolvency is weighing on sentiment. The blowback from venture capital Three Arrows Capital (3AC) failing to meet its financial obligations on June 14 and Asia-based lending platform Babel Finance citing liquidity pressure as a reason for pausing withdrawals are just two of the most recent examples. This news has caught the eyes of regulators, especially after Celsius, a crypto lending firm, suspended user withdrawals on June 12. On June 1...
Bitcoin futures enter backwardation for the first time in a year
Bitcoin’s (BTC) month-to-date chart is very bearish, and the sub-$18,000 level seen over the weekend was the lowest price seen since December 2020. Bulls’ current hope depends on turning $20,000 to support, but derivatives metrics tell a completely different story as professional traders are still extremely skeptical. BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView It’s important to remember that the S&P 500 index dropped 11% in June, and even multi-billion dollar companies like Netflix, PayPal and Caesars Entertainment have corrected with 71%, 61% and 57% losses, respectively. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on June 15, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that more aggressive tightening could b...
Ethereum price risks a drop below $1K if these key price metrics turn bearish
Ether (ETH) price is down 37.5% in the last seven days and recent news reported that developers decided to postpone the network’s migration to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus. This upgrade is expected to end the dependency on proof-of-work (PoW) mining and the Merge scalability solution that has been pursued for the past six years. Competing smart contracts like BNB, Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) outperformed Ether by 13% to 17% since June 8 even though there was a market-wide correction in the cryptocurrency sector. This suggests that the Ethereum network’s issues also weighed on the ETH price. The “difficulty bomb,” feature was added to the code in 2016 as plans for the new consensus mechanism (formerly Eth2) were being formed. At the peak of the so-called ̶...
This key Ethereum price metric shows ETH traders aren’t as bearish as they appear
Ether (ETH) is down 25% in just a month and even the recent upgrade to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus on the Ropsten testnet failed to move the altcoin’s price. The merge is meant to address energy-use issues and open a path for higher transaction output, but the actual full transition for the Ethereum network is not expected until later in the year. Ethereum developer Parithosh Jayanthi also noted that some bugs on the PoS implementation emerged, but those should be fixed over the coming weeks. Luckily for Ethereum, two of its top competitors recently faced challenges of their own. The Solana (SOL) network faced the fifth outage in 2022 after no new blocks were produced for four hours on June 1. Every decentralized application was halted until the validators were able to addr...
Bitcoin price broke to the upside, but where are all the leveraged long traders?
This week’s Bitcoin (BTC) chart leaves little doubt that the symmetrical triangle pattern is breaking to the upside after constricting the price for nearly 20 days. However, derivatives metrics tell a completely different story because professional traders are unwilling to add leveraged positions and are overcharging for downside protection. BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView Will BTC reverse course even as macroeconomic conditions crumble? Whether BTC turns the $30,000 to $31,000 level into support depends to some degree on how global markets perform. The last time U.S. stock markets faced a seven-week consecutive downtrend was over a decade ago. New home sales in the U.S. declined for the fourth straight month, which is also the longest streak since October 2010. ...
Bitcoin price action decouples from stock markets, but not in a good way
This week the stock markets began to flash a little green and Bitcoin (BTC) is decoupling from traditional markets but not in a good way. The cryptocurrency is down 3% while the Nasdaq Composite tech-heavy stock market index is up 3.1%. May 27 data from the United States Commerce Department shows that the personal savings rate fell to 4.4% in April to reach the lowest level since 2008 and crypto traders are worried that worsening global macroeconomic conditions could add to investors’ aversion to risky assets. For example, Invesco QQQ Trust, a $160 billion tech company-based U.S. exchange-traded fund, is down 23% year-to-date. Meanwhile the iShares MSCI China ETF, a $6.1 billion tracker of the Chinese shares, has declined 20% in 2022. To get a clearer picture of how crypto traders are posi...
Bitcoin’s current setup creates an interesting risk-reward situation for bulls
The Bitcoin (BTC) chart has formed a symmetrical triangle, which currently holds a tight range from $28,900 to $30,900. This pattern has been holding for nearly two weeks and could potentially extend for another two weeks before price makes a more decisive movement. Bitcoin/USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView For those unfamiliar with technical analysis, a symmetrical triangle can be either bullish or bearish. In that sense, the price converges in a series of lower peaks and higher lows. The decisive moment is the support or resistance breakthrough when the market finally decides on a new trend. Thus, the price could break out in either direction. According to Bitcoin derivatives data, investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn, but recent improvements in global economic ...
Here’s why bears aim to keep Bitcoin under $29K ahead of Friday’s $640M BTC options expiry
Over the past nine days, Bitcoin’s (BTC) daily closing price fluctuated in a tight range between $28,700 and $31,300. The May 12 collapse of TerraUSD (UST), previously the third-largest stablecoin by market cap, negatively impacted investor confidence and the path for Bitcoin’ price recovery seems clouded after the Nasdaq Composite Stock Market Index plunged 4.7% on May 18. Disappointing quarterly results from top United States retailers are amping up recession fears and on May 18, Target (TG) shares dropped 25%, while Walmart (WMT) stock plunged 17% in two days. The prospect of an economic slowdown brought the S&P 500 Index to the edge of bear market territory, a 20% contraction from its all-time high. Moreover, the recent crypto price drop was costly to leverage buyers (l...
Descending channel pattern and weak futures data continue to constrain Ethereum price
Despite bouncing from a 45-day low on April 30, Ether (ETH) price is still stuck in a descending channel and the subsequent 9% gain over the past four days was just enough to get the altcoin to test the pattern’s $2,870 resistance. Ether/USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView Federal Reserve monetary policy continues to be a major influence on crypto prices and this week’s volatility is most likely connected to comments from the FOMC. On May 4, the United States Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point, which is the biggest hike in 22 years. Although it was a widely expected and unanimous decision, the monetary authority said it would reduce its $9 trillion asset base starting in June. Chairman Jeremy Powell explained that the Federal Res...
Bitcoin pushes to $40K, but are bulls strong enough to win Friday’s $735M options expiry?
Bitcoin (BTC) price has been stuck in a falling wedge pattern for the past two months and during this time it has tested the $37,600 support on multiple instances. Adding to this “bearish” price action, BTC is down 16% year-to-date, which is in line with the Russell 2000s performance. Bitcoin/USD 1-day chart at FTX. Source: TradingView The real driver of Bitcoin’s current price action is investors’ concerns about worsening macroeconomic conditions. Professional investors are worried about the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s tightening economic policies and on May 3, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said that the environment for investors is worse than ever because the monetary authority is raising interest rates when financial conditions are already worsening. On ...
Afraid to buy the dip? Bitcoin options provide a safer way to ‘go long’ from $38K
The last time Bitcoin (BTC) traded above $50,000 was Dec. 27, 2021. Since then, four months have passed, but traders seem somewhat optimistic that inflation has hit the necessary threshold to trigger cryptocurrency adoption. In theory, the 8.5% inflation in the United States means that every five years, the prices increase by 50%. This essentially turns $100 into $66 by slashing 33% of the dollar’s purchasing power. The U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is expected to rule on the interest rates on May 4, but more importantly, the FED is expected to announce a program to offload part of its $9 trillion balance sheet. Thus, instead of supporting debt and mortgage markets, the U.S. Central Bank will likely sell $95 billion worth of these assets every month. The consequences could be severe an...
Here’s how Ether options traders could prepare for the proof-of-stake migration
Ethereum’s long-awaited transition away from proof-of-work (PoW) mining has recently suffered another delay and is expected to occur in the second half of 2022. Ethereum developer Tim Beiko stated on April 13 that “it won’t be June, but likely in the few months after. No firm date yet, but we’re definitely in the final chapter of PoW on Ethereum.” An automated increase in mining difficulty designed to make PoW mining less attractive is set to become active around May. Known as the “difficulty bomb,” it will eventually make blocks “unbearably slow,” forcing the upgrade to a proof-of-stake (PoS) network. Such news might have negatively impacted Ether’s (ETH) price, but it creates an immense opportunity for those betting on the ...
