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Bitcoin is pinned below $20K as the macro climate stifles hope for a sustainable BTC bull run
Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts. Bitcoin price is down for the year but it’s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period. Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S....
Bitcoin price falls under $19K as data shows pro traders avoiding leverage longs
An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15. Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction. Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismiss...
Hawkish Fed comments and Bitcoin derivatives data point to further BTC downside
A $750 pump on Aug. 26 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $21,120 to $21,870 in less than two hours. However, the movement was completely erased after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. Following Powell’s speech, BTC price dropped as low as $20,700. Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView At Jackson Hole, Powell specifically mentioned that “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.” Right after those remarks, the U.S. stock market indexes reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.2% within the hour. On the Bitcoin chart, the affable “Bart candle,” a reference to the shape of Bart Simpson’s head, and a descriptor of BTC’s up and down...
Here’s why holding $20.8K will be critical in this week’s $1B Bitcoin options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 16.5% correction between Aug. 15 and Aug. 19 as it tested the $20,800 support. While the drop is startling, in reality, a $4,050 price difference is relatively insignificant, especially when one accounts for Bitcoin’s 72% annualized volatility. Currently, the S&P 500’s volatility stands at 31%, which is significantly lower, yet the index traded down 9.1% between June 8 and June 13. So, comparatively speaking, the index of major U.S.-listed companies faced a more abrupt movement adjusted for the historical risk metric. At the start of this week, crypto investors’ sentiment worsened after weaker conditions in Chinese real estate markets forced the central bank to reduce its five-year loan prime rate on Aug. 21. Moreover, a Goldman Sachs investment ...
Options data shows Bitcoin’s short-term uptrend is at risk if BTC falls below $23K
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $25,000 on Aug. 15, but the excitement lasted less than an hour and was followed by a 5% retrace in the next five hours. The resistance level proved to be tougher than expected but may have given bulls false hope for the upcoming $335 million weekly options expiry. Investors’ fleeting optimism reverted to a sellers’ market on Aug. 17 after BTC dumped and tested the $23,300 support. The negative move took place hours before the release of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) minutes from its July meeting. Investors expect some insights on whether the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. The negative newsflow accelerated on Aug. 16 after a federal court in the United States authorized the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to for...
Traders flinch after Ethereum price rejects at $2,000
Ether (ETH) rejected the $2,000 resistance on Aug. 14, but the solid 82.8% gain since the rising wedge formation started on July 13 certainly seems like a victory for bulls. Undoubtedly, the “ultrasound money” dream gets closer as the network expects the Merge transaction to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network on Sept. 16. Ether price index in USD, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView Some critics point out that the transition out of proof-of-work (PoW) mining has been delayed for years and that the Merge itself does not address the scalability issue. The network’s migration to parallel processing (sharding) is expected to happen later in 2023 or early 2024. As for the Ether bulls, the EIP-1559 burn mechanism introduced in August 2021 was essential to drive ETH to scar...
$475M in Bitcoin options expire this week — Are bulls or bears poised to win?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been posting higher lows for the past eight weeks, but during this time, BTC has not been able to flip the $24,000 resistance to support on at least three different opportunities. This is precisely why the $475 million Bitcoin options expiry on Aug. 12 might be a game changer for bulls. Considering the current regulatory pressures in play, there seems to be a good enough rationale for avoiding bullish bets, especially after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission pressed charges against a former Coinbase manager for illegal securities trading on July 21. The additional impact from the Terra (Luna) — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — ecosystem imploding and subsequent crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) registering for bankruptcy continue to weigh o...
3 key Ether derivatives metrics suggest $1,600 ETH support lacks strength
Ether (ETH) price is up 60% since May 3, outperforming leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) by 32% over that span. However, evidence suggests the current $1,600 support lacks strength as network use and smart contract deposit metrics weakened. Moreover, ETH derivatives show increasing sell pressure from margin traders. The positive price move was primarily driven by growing certainty of the Merge, which is Ethereum’s transition to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network. During the Ethereum core developers conference call on July 14, developer Tim Beiko proposed Sept. 19 as the tentative target date for the Merge. In addition, analysts expect the new supply of ETH to be reduced by up to 90% after the network’s monetary policy change, thus creating a bullish catalyst. Ethe...
$1.26B in Ethereum options expire on Friday and bulls are ready to push ETH price higher
Ether’s (ETH) 53% rally between July 13 and 18 gave bulls an edge in July’s $1.26 billion monthly options expiry. The move happened as Ethereum developers set a tentative date for the “Merge,” a transition out of the burdensome proof-of-work (PoW) mining mechanism. Ether USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView According to some analysts, by removing the additional ETH issuing used to finance the energy cost required on traditional mining consensus, Ether could finally achieve the “ultra-sound money” status. On Beacon Chain, the issuance will be around 1,600 ETH per day decreasing the inflation significantly from 13,000 ETH per day on PoW. Merge sets effects on monetary policies of Ethereum to become Ultrasound money. (10/15) pic.twitter.com/9...
Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions
The previous $19,000 Bitcoin (BTC) support level becomes more distant after the 22.5% gain in nine days. However, little optimism has been instilled as the impact of the Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Voyager, Babel Finance and Celsius crises remain uncertain. Moreover, the contagion has claimed yet another victim after Thai crypto exchange Zipmex halted withdrawals on July 20. Bitcoin/USD 1-day price. Source: TradingView Bulls’ hopes depend on the $23,000 support strengthening as time goes by, but derivatives metrics show professional traders are still highly skeptical of continuous recovery. Macroeconomic headwinds favor scarce assets Some analysts attribute the crypto market strength to China’s lower-than-expected gross domestic product data, causing investors to expect further expan...
Bulls or bears? Both have a fair chance in Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $24,000 on July 20, but the excitement lasted less than two hours after the resistance level proved more challenging than expected. A positive is that the $24,280 high represents a 28.5% increase from the July 13 swing low at $18,900. According to Yahoo Finance, on July 19, the Bank of America published its latest fund managers survey, and the headline was “I’m so bearish, I’m bullish.” The report cited investors’ pessimism, expectations of weak corporate earnings and equity allocations being at the lowest level since September 2008. The 4.6% advance on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index between July 18 and 20 also provided the necessary hope for bulls to profit from the upcoming July 22 weekly options expiry. Global macroe...
Bitcoin’s short-term price prospects slightly improved, but most traders are far from optimistic
A mild sense of hope emerged among Bitcoin (BTC) investors after the June 18 drop to $17,600 becomes more distant and an early ascending pattern points toward $21,000 in the short-term. Bitcoin 12-hour USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView Recent negative remarks from lawmakers continued to curb investor optimism. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Swiss National Bank (SNB) deputy head Thomas Muser said that the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem would cease to exist if current financial regulations are implemented in the crypto industry. An article published in The People’s Daily on June 26 mentioned the Terra (LUNA), now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC), network’s collapse and local blockchain expert Yifan He referring to crypto as a Ponzi scheme. When asked by Cointelegraph...
