Interest Rates
Macroeconomic data points toward intensifying pain for crypto investors in 2023
Undoubtedly, 2022 was one of the worst years for Bitcoin (BTC) buyers, primarily because the asset’s price dropped by 65%. While there were some explicit reasons for the drop, such as the LUNA-UST crash in May and the FTX implosion in November, the most important reason was the U.S. Federal Reserve policy of tapering and raising interest rates. Bitcoin’s price had dropped 50% from its peak to lows of $33,100 before the LUNA-UST crash, thanks to the Fed rate hikes. The first significant drop in Bitcoin’s price was due to growing market uncertainty around potential rate hike rumors in November 2021. By January 2022, the stock market had already started showing cracks due to the increasing pressure of imminent tapering, which also negatively impacted crypto prices. BTC/USD daily price chart. ...
US will see new ‘inflation spike’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin (BTC) begins the first week of 2023 in an uninspiring place as volatility stays away — along with traders. After failing to budge throughout the Christmas and new year break, BTC price action remains locked in a narrow range. Having sealed yearly losses of nearly 65% in 2022, Bitcoin has arguably seen a classic bear market year, but for the time being, few are actively predicting a recovery. The situation is complex for the average hodler, who is watching for macro triggers courtesy of the United States Federal Reserve and economic policy impact on dollar strength. Prior to Wall Street returning on Jan. 3, Cointelegraph takes a look at the factors at play when it comes to BTC price performance in the coming week and beyond. Bitcoin traders fear new lows amid flatlining price Bitcoi...
3 striking similarities with past Bitcoin price bottoms — But there’s a catch
Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating inside the $18,000–$20,000 price range since mid-June, pausing a strong bear market that began after the price peaked at $69,000 in November 2021. Many analysts have looked at Bitcoin’s sideways trend as a sign of a potential market bottom, drawing comparisons from the cryptocurrency’s previous bear markets that show similar price behaviors preceding sharp bullish reversals. Here are three strikingly similar trends that preceded past market bottoms. 2018’s sideways trend for BTC price The 2018’s Bitcoin bear market serves as a major cue for a potential market bottom in 2022 if one looks at its eerily similar price trends and indicators. One of the key indicators is Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave in the ch...
3 historically accurate Bitcoin on-chain metrics are flashing ‘bottom’
Bitcoin (BTC) and other riskier assets slipped on Oct. 21 as traders scrutinized macro indicators that suggest the Federal Reserve would continue to hike rates. Nonetheless, the BTC/USD pair remains rangebound inside the $18,000–$20,000 price range, showing a strong bias conflict in the market. BTC price holding above $18K since June Notably, BTC’s price has been unable to dive deeper below $18,000 since it first tested the support level in June 2022. As a result, some analysts believe that the cryptocurrency is bottoming out, given it has already corrected by over 70% from its record high of $69,000, established almost a year ago. BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView “During the 2018 bear market, BTC saw a max drawdown from peak to trough of 84%, lasting 364 days, wh...
XRP price risks 30% decline despite Ripple’s legal win prospects
Ripple (XRP) price was wobbling between profits and losses on Sept. 19 despite hopes that Ripple would eventually win its long-running legal battle against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Ripple and the SEC both agreed to expedite the lawsuit on Friday to get an answer on whether $XRP is a security or not. From the updates of the case, it sounds like it’s in the favor of @Ripple pic.twitter.com/SAyl4VLxdM — Jeff Sekinger (@JeffSekinger) September 19, 2022 Fed spoils SEC vs. Ripple euphoria The XRP/USD pair dropped by over 1% to $0.35 while forming extremely sharp bullish and bearish wicks on its Sept. 19 daily candlestick. In other words, its intraday performance hinted at a growing bias conflict among traders. XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView The inde...
Goldman Sachs’ bearish macro outlook puts Bitcoin at risk of crashing to $12K
A sequence of macro warnings coming out of the Goldman Sachs camp puts Bitcoin (BTC) at a risk of crashing to $12,000. Bitcoin in “bottom phase?” A team of Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius raised their prediction for the speed of Federal Reserve benchmark rate hikes. They noted that the U.S. central bank would increase rates by 0.75% in September and 0.5% in November, up from their previous forecast of 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively. Fed’s rate-hike path has played a key role in determining Bitcoin’s price trends in 2022. The period of higher lending rates — from near zero to the 2.25-2.5% range now — has prompted investors to rotate out of riskier assets and seek shelter in safer alternatives like cash. Bitcoin has dropped by almost 60% year-to-date and is...
Bitcoin is a ‘wild card’ set to outperform —Bloomberg analyst
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has labeled Bitcoin (BTC) a “wild card” which is “ripe” to outperform once traditional stocks finally bottom out. In a Sept.7 post on Linkedin and Twitter, McGlone explained that while the United States (U.S.) Federal Reserve tightening will likely determine the direction of the stock market, Bitcoin remains a “wildcard” that could buck the trend, stating: “Bitcoin is a wild card that’s more ripe to outperform when stocks bottom, but transitioning to be more like gold and bonds.” The commodities strategist shared more details in a Sept. 7 report, which noted that Bitcoin was primed to rebound strongly from the bear market despite a “strong headwind” toward high-risk assets: “It’s typically a matter of time for the fed funds gauge to flip toward cu...
Why September is shaping up to be a potentially ugly month for Bitcoin price
Bitcoin (BTC) bulls should not get excited about the recovery from the June lows of $17,500 just yet as BTC heads into its riskiest month in the coming days. The psychology behind the “September effect” Historic data shows September being Bitcoin’s worst month between 2013 and 2021, except in 2015 and 2016. At the same time, the average Bitcoin price decline in the month is a modest -6%. Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: CoinGlass Interestingly, Bitcoin’s poor track record across the previous September months coincides with similar downturns in the stock market. For instance, the average decline of the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 in September is 0.7% in the last 25 years. S&P 500 performance in August and September since 1998. Source: Bloomberg Traditional chart a...
Bitcoin heads into FOMC day on 24-hour highs amid concern over $24.3K top
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to claw back losses on July 27 as a macro day of reckoning arrived for risk assets. BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView Analysis: $24,300 resistance “not a good sign” Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed a 24-hour high for BTC/USD prior to the Wall Street open on July 27. The pair had sunk below $21,000 in the first portion of the week, heightening nervousness among traders already wary of potential headwinds from the United States Federal Reserve. Likely chop for equities going into FOMC which expected $BTC and crypto chop around also today pic.twitter.com/GDj0GwlDXy — Rager (@Rager) July 26, 2022 July 27 is set to reveal the Federal Open Markets Committee‘s (FOMC) next base rate hike, expectations flitting between 7...
Bitcoin’s inverse correlation with US dollar hits 17-month highs — what’s next for BTC?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been moving in the opposite direction of the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2022 — and now that inverse relationship is more extreme than ever. Bitcoin and the dollar go in opposite ways Notably, the weekly correlation coefficient between BTC and the dollar dropped to 0.77 below zero in the week ending July 3, its lowest in seventeen months. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached 0.78 above zero in the same weekly session, data from TradingView shows. BTC/USD and U.S. dollar correlation coefficient. Source: TradingView That is primarily because of these markets’ year-to-date performances amid the fears of recession, led by the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate hikes to curb rising inflation. Bitcoin, for example,...
Polygon price jumps 60% in four days amid ‘pretty big’ MATIC accumulation
Polygon (MATIC) took a break from its prevailing bearish course, posting one of sharpest rebound in the crypto market this week. Notably, MATIC’s price has risen to $0.50 this June 23, four days after hitting $0.317, its lowest level since April 2021. This amounts to roughly a 60% gain, surpassing the performances of even Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) in the same timeframe. MATIC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView Nevertheless, MATIC is still down significantly from its December 2021 high of $2.92, coinciding with the overall crypto bear market and a hawkish Fed putting pressure on risk-on assets. MATIC “in a pretty big accumulation” Meanwhile, some of its richest investors have been accumulating MATIC tokens despite the general downtrend, on-chain dat...
Ethereum risks another 60% drop after breaking below $1K to 18-month lows
The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), careened below $1,000 on June 18 as the ongoing sell-off in the crypto market continued despite the weekend. Ether reached $975, its lowest level since January 2021, losing 80% of its value from its record high in November 2021. The decline appeared amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s 75 basis points rate hike, a move that pushed both cryptocurrencies and stocks into a strong bear market. “The Federal Reserve has barely started raising rates, and for the record, they haven’t sold anything on their balance sheet either,” noted Nick, an analyst at data resource Ecoinometrics, warnings that “there is bound to be more downside coming.” ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView Ethereum...
