Futures
Bitcoin fails to break the $21K support, but bears remain shy
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied on the back of the United States stock market’s 3.4% gains on Oct. 28, with the S&P 500 index rising to its highest level in 44 days. In addition, recently released data showed that inflation might be slowing down, which gave investors hope that the Federal Reserve might break its pattern of 75 basis-point rate hikes after its November meeting. In September, the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% from the previous month. Although still an increase, it was in line with expectations. This data is the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure for interest rate modeling. Additional positive news came from tech giant Apple, which reported weak iPhone revenues on Oct. 27 but beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly earnings and margin. M...
Bitcoin traders were ready for a hot CPI report, but BTC bears are still in control
Cryptocurrency traders were caught by surprise after the Oct. 13 Consumer Price Index Report showed inflation in the United States rising by 0.6% in September versus the previous month. The slightly higher-than-expected number caused Bitcoin (BTC) to face a 4.4% price correction from $19,000 to $18,175 in less than three hours. The abrupt movement caused $55 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest amount in three weeks. The $18,200 level was the lowest since Sept. 21 and marks an 8.3% weekly correction. Bitcoin/USD 1-hour price. Source: TradingView It is worth highlighting that the dip under $18,600 on Sept. 21 lasted less than 5 hours. Bears were likely disappointed as a 6.3% rally took place on Sept. 22, causing Bitcoin to test the $19,500 resi...
CFTC takes legal action against Digitex futures exchange and CEO
The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, filed a complaint against Digitex LLC and its founder and CEO Adam Todd for failing to register the cryptocurrency futures exchange and manipulating the price of its DGTX token. According to a Sept. 30 court filing in the Southern District of Florida, Todd allegedly pumped up the price of DGTX tokens in an effort to inflate Digitex’s holdings. The U.S. regulator claimed the Digitex CEO used different corporate entities as part of a scheme to launch and operate an illegal digital asset derivatives trading platform, in violation of the Commodity Exchange Act. CFTC rules require performing rKnow Your Customer checks and implementing a customer information program. Todd said in 2020 that he planned to remove all KYC procedures&nb...
Long the Bitcoin bottom, or watch and wait? Bitcoin traders plan their next move
Bitcoin (BTC) faced a 9% correction in the early hours of Sept. 19 as the price traded down to $18,270. Even though the price quickly bounced back above $19,000, this level was the lowest price seen in three months. However, pro traders held their ground and were not inclined to take the loss, as measured by derivatives contracts. Bitcoin/USD price index, 2-hour. Source: TradingView Pinpointing the rationale behind the crash is extremely difficult, but some say United States President Joe Biden’s interview on CBS “60 Minutes” raised concerns about global warfare. When responding to whether U.S. forces would defend Taiwan in the event of a China-led invasion, Biden replied: “Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.” Others cite China’s central ...
Tired of losing money? Here are 2 reasons why retail investors always lose
A quick flick through Twitter, any social media investing club, or investing-themed Reddit will quickly allow one to find handfuls of traders who have vastly excelled throughout a month, semester, or even a year. Believe it or not, most successful traders cherry-pick periods or use different accounts simultaneously to ensure there’s always a winning position to display. On the other hand, millions of traders blow up their portfolios and turn out empty-handed, especially when using leverage. Take, for example, the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) which requires that brokers disclose the percentage of their accounts in the region that are unprofitably trading derivatives. According to the data, 69% to 84% of retail investors lose money. Similarly, a study by the U.S. ...
3 major mistakes to avoid when trading cryptocurrency futures markets
Many traders frequently express some relatively large misconceptions about trading cryptocurrency futures, especially on derivatives exchanges outside the realm of traditional finance. The most common mistakes involve futures markets’ price decoupling, fees and the impact of liquidations on the derivatives instrument. Let’s explore three simple mistakes and misconceptions that traders should avoid when trading crypto futures. Derivatives contracts differ from spot trading in pricing and trading Currently, the aggregate futures open interest in the crypto market surpasses $25 billion and retail traders and experienced fund managers use these instruments to leverage their crypto positons. Futures contracts and other derivatives are often used to reduce risk or increase exposure and are not r...
3 Bitcoin price metrics suggest Sept. 9’s 10% pump marked the final cycle bottom
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stock markets has been unusually high since mid-March, meaning the two asset classes have presented near-identical directional movement. This data might explain why the 10% rally above $21,000 is being dismissed by most traders, especially considering S&P 500 futures gained 4% in two days. However, Bitcoin trading activity and the derivatives market strongly support the recent gains. Curiously, the current Bitcoin rally happened a day after the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a report investigating the energy usage associated with digital assets. The study recommended enforcing energy reliability and efficiency standards. It also suggested federal agencies provide technical assistance and initiate a collaborative pr...
Bitcoin price falls under $19K as data shows pro traders avoiding leverage longs
An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15. Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction. Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismiss...
Hawkish Fed comments and Bitcoin derivatives data point to further BTC downside
A $750 pump on Aug. 26 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $21,120 to $21,870 in less than two hours. However, the movement was completely erased after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. Following Powell’s speech, BTC price dropped as low as $20,700. Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView At Jackson Hole, Powell specifically mentioned that “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.” Right after those remarks, the U.S. stock market indexes reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.2% within the hour. On the Bitcoin chart, the affable “Bart candle,” a reference to the shape of Bart Simpson’s head, and a descriptor of BTC’s up and down...
Data shows Bitcoin and altcoins at risk of a 20% drop to new yearly lows
After the rising wedge formation was broken on Aug. 17, the total crypto market capitalization quickly dropped to $1 trillion and the bulls’ dream of recouping the $1.2 trillion support, last seen on June 10, became even more distant. Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView The worsening conditions are not exclusive to crypto markets. The price of WTI oil ceded 3.6% on Aug. 22, down 28% from the $122 peak seen on June 8. The United StatesTreasuries 5-year yield, which bottomed on Aug. 1 at 2.61%, reverted the trend and is now trading at 3.16%. These are all signs that investors are feeling less confident about the central bank’s policies of requesting more money to hold those debt instruments. Recently, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Ko...
3 reasons why Bitcoin’s drop to $21K and the market-wide sell-off could be worse than you think
On Friday, August 19, the total crypto market capitalization dropped by 9.1%, but more importantly, the all-important $1 trillion psychological support was tapped. The market’s latest venture below this just three weeks ago, meaning investors were pretty confident that the $780 billion total market-cap low on June 18 was a mere distant memory. Regulatory uncertainty increased on Aug. 17 after the United States House Committee on Energy and Commerce announced that they were “deeply concerned” that proof-of-work mining could increase demand for fossil fuels. As a result, U.S. lawmakers requested the crypto mining companies to provide information on energy consumption and average costs. Typically, sell-offs have a greater impact on cryptocurrencies outside of the top 5 asset...
Traders flinch after Ethereum price rejects at $2,000
Ether (ETH) rejected the $2,000 resistance on Aug. 14, but the solid 82.8% gain since the rising wedge formation started on July 13 certainly seems like a victory for bulls. Undoubtedly, the “ultrasound money” dream gets closer as the network expects the Merge transaction to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network on Sept. 16. Ether price index in USD, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView Some critics point out that the transition out of proof-of-work (PoW) mining has been delayed for years and that the Merge itself does not address the scalability issue. The network’s migration to parallel processing (sharding) is expected to happen later in 2023 or early 2024. As for the Ether bulls, the EIP-1559 burn mechanism introduced in August 2021 was essential to drive ETH to scar...
