Derivatives
Bitcoin struggles to flip $24K to support, but data shows pro traders stacking sats
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied on the back of the United States Federal Reserve’s decision to hike interest rates on July 27. Investors interpreted Federal Reserve chairman Jeremy Powell’s statement as more dovish than the previous FOMC committee meeting, suggesting that the worst moment of tight economic policies is behind us. Another positive news for risk assets came from the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which rose 6.8% in June. The move was the biggest since January 1982, reducing incentives for fixed income investments. The Federal Reserve focuses on the PCE due to its broader measure of inflation pressures, measuring the price changes of goods and services consumed by the general public. Additional positive news came from Amazon after the e-commerce giant re...
$1.26B in Ethereum options expire on Friday and bulls are ready to push ETH price higher
Ether’s (ETH) 53% rally between July 13 and 18 gave bulls an edge in July’s $1.26 billion monthly options expiry. The move happened as Ethereum developers set a tentative date for the “Merge,” a transition out of the burdensome proof-of-work (PoW) mining mechanism. Ether USD price index, 12-hour chart. Source: TradingView According to some analysts, by removing the additional ETH issuing used to finance the energy cost required on traditional mining consensus, Ether could finally achieve the “ultra-sound money” status. On Beacon Chain, the issuance will be around 1,600 ETH per day decreasing the inflation significantly from 13,000 ETH per day on PoW. Merge sets effects on monetary policies of Ethereum to become Ultrasound money. (10/15) pic.twitter.com/9...
Fed policy and crumbling market sentiment could send the total crypto market cap back under $1T
The total crypto market capitalization broke above $1 trillion on July 18 after an agonizing thirty-five-day stint below the key psychological level. Over the next seven days, Bitcoin (BTC) traded flat near $22,400 and Ether (ETH) faced a 0.5% correction to $1,560. Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView The total crypto capitalization closed July 24 at $1.03 trillion, a modest 0.5% negative seven-day movement. The apparent stability is biased toward the flat performance of BTC and Ether and the $150 billion value of stablecoins. The broader data hides the fact that seven out of the top-80 coins dropped 9% or more in the period. Even though the chart shows support at the $1 trillion level, it will take some time until investors regain confidence to invest in cryptocurrenc...
Pro Bitcoin traders are uncomfortable with bullish positions
The previous $19,000 Bitcoin (BTC) support level becomes more distant after the 22.5% gain in nine days. However, little optimism has been instilled as the impact of the Three Arrows Capital (3AC), Voyager, Babel Finance and Celsius crises remain uncertain. Moreover, the contagion has claimed yet another victim after Thai crypto exchange Zipmex halted withdrawals on July 20. Bitcoin/USD 1-day price. Source: TradingView Bulls’ hopes depend on the $23,000 support strengthening as time goes by, but derivatives metrics show professional traders are still highly skeptical of continuous recovery. Macroeconomic headwinds favor scarce assets Some analysts attribute the crypto market strength to China’s lower-than-expected gross domestic product data, causing investors to expect further expan...
Bulls or bears? Both have a fair chance in Friday’s Bitcoin options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $24,000 on July 20, but the excitement lasted less than two hours after the resistance level proved more challenging than expected. A positive is that the $24,280 high represents a 28.5% increase from the July 13 swing low at $18,900. According to Yahoo Finance, on July 19, the Bank of America published its latest fund managers survey, and the headline was “I’m so bearish, I’m bullish.” The report cited investors’ pessimism, expectations of weak corporate earnings and equity allocations being at the lowest level since September 2008. The 4.6% advance on the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index between July 18 and 20 also provided the necessary hope for bulls to profit from the upcoming July 22 weekly options expiry. Global macroe...
Bitcoin’s short-term price prospects slightly improved, but most traders are far from optimistic
A mild sense of hope emerged among Bitcoin (BTC) investors after the June 18 drop to $17,600 becomes more distant and an early ascending pattern points toward $21,000 in the short-term. Bitcoin 12-hour USD price at FTX. Source: TradingView Recent negative remarks from lawmakers continued to curb investor optimism. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Swiss National Bank (SNB) deputy head Thomas Muser said that the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem would cease to exist if current financial regulations are implemented in the crypto industry. An article published in The People’s Daily on June 26 mentioned the Terra (LUNA), now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC), network’s collapse and local blockchain expert Yifan He referring to crypto as a Ponzi scheme. When asked by Cointelegraph...
Here’s how pro traders could use Bitcoin options to buy the $20K BTC dip
Bitcoin hit a 2022 low at $17,580 on June 18 and many traders are hopeful that this was the bottom, but (BTC) has been unable to produce a daily close above $21,000 for the past six days. For this reason, traders are uncomfortable with the current price action and the threat of many CeFi and DeFi companies dealing with the loss of user funds and possible insolvency is weighing on sentiment. The blowback from venture capital Three Arrows Capital (3AC) failing to meet its financial obligations on June 14 and Asia-based lending platform Babel Finance citing liquidity pressure as a reason for pausing withdrawals are just two of the most recent examples. This news has caught the eyes of regulators, especially after Celsius, a crypto lending firm, suspended user withdrawals on June 12. On June 1...
Bitcoin futures enter backwardation for the first time in a year
Bitcoin’s (BTC) month-to-date chart is very bearish, and the sub-$18,000 level seen over the weekend was the lowest price seen since December 2020. Bulls’ current hope depends on turning $20,000 to support, but derivatives metrics tell a completely different story as professional traders are still extremely skeptical. BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView It’s important to remember that the S&P 500 index dropped 11% in June, and even multi-billion dollar companies like Netflix, PayPal and Caesars Entertainment have corrected with 71%, 61% and 57% losses, respectively. The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points on June 15, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted that more aggressive tightening could b...
Ethereum price risks a drop below $1K if these key price metrics turn bearish
Ether (ETH) price is down 37.5% in the last seven days and recent news reported that developers decided to postpone the network’s migration to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus. This upgrade is expected to end the dependency on proof-of-work (PoW) mining and the Merge scalability solution that has been pursued for the past six years. Competing smart contracts like BNB, Cardano (ADA) and Solana (SOL) outperformed Ether by 13% to 17% since June 8 even though there was a market-wide correction in the cryptocurrency sector. This suggests that the Ethereum network’s issues also weighed on the ETH price. The “difficulty bomb,” feature was added to the code in 2016 as plans for the new consensus mechanism (formerly Eth2) were being formed. At the peak of the so-called ̶...
The total crypto market cap drops under $1.2T, but data show traders are less inclined to sell
An improving Tether discount in Asian markets and positive futures premiums for BTC and ETH suggest a slight recovery is in the making. The total crypto market capitalization has been trading in a descending channel for the past 29 days and currently displays support at the $1.17 trillion level. In the past 7 days, Bitcoin (BTC) presented a modest 2% drop and Ether (ETH) faced a 5% correction. Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView The June 10 consumer price index (CPI) report showed an 8.6% year-on-year increase and crypto and stock markets immediately felt the impact, but it’s not certain whether the figure will convince the U.S. Federal Reserve to hesitate in future interest rate hikes. Mid-cap altcoins dropped further, sentiment is still bearish The generalized beari...
This key Ethereum price metric shows ETH traders aren’t as bearish as they appear
Ether (ETH) is down 25% in just a month and even the recent upgrade to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus on the Ropsten testnet failed to move the altcoin’s price. The merge is meant to address energy-use issues and open a path for higher transaction output, but the actual full transition for the Ethereum network is not expected until later in the year. Ethereum developer Parithosh Jayanthi also noted that some bugs on the PoS implementation emerged, but those should be fixed over the coming weeks. Luckily for Ethereum, two of its top competitors recently faced challenges of their own. The Solana (SOL) network faced the fifth outage in 2022 after no new blocks were produced for four hours on June 1. Every decentralized application was halted until the validators were able to addr...
Total crypto market cap risks a dip below $1 trillion if these 3 metrics don’t improve
The total crypto market capitalization has ranged from $1.19 trillion to $1.36 trillion for the past 23 days, which is a relatively tight 13% range. During the same time, Bitcoin’s (BTC) 3.5% and Ether’s (ETH) 1.6% gains for the week are far from encouraging. To date, the total crypto market is down 43% in just two months, so investors are unlikely to celebrate even if the descending triangle formation breaks to the upside. Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView Regulation worries continue to weigh investor sentiment, a prime example being Japan’s swift decision to enforce new laws after the Terra USD (UST) — now known as TerraUSD Classic (USTC) — collapse. On June 3, Japan’s parliament passed a bill to limit stablecoin issuing to licensed banks, registered money t...
