Derivatives
3 Bitcoin price metrics suggest Sept. 9’s 10% pump marked the final cycle bottom
The correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and stock markets has been unusually high since mid-March, meaning the two asset classes have presented near-identical directional movement. This data might explain why the 10% rally above $21,000 is being dismissed by most traders, especially considering S&P 500 futures gained 4% in two days. However, Bitcoin trading activity and the derivatives market strongly support the recent gains. Curiously, the current Bitcoin rally happened a day after the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy released a report investigating the energy usage associated with digital assets. The study recommended enforcing energy reliability and efficiency standards. It also suggested federal agencies provide technical assistance and initiate a collaborative pr...
Bitcoin is pinned below $20K as the macro climate stifles hope for a sustainable BTC bull run
Bitcoin (BTC) crashed below $19,000 on Sept. 6, driving the price to its lowest level in 80 days. The movement not only completely erased the entirety of the 32% gains accrued from July until Aug. 15, it also wiped out $246 million worth of leverage long (buy) futures contracts. Bitcoin price is down for the year but it’s important to compare its price action against other assets. Oil prices are currently down 23.5% since July, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has dropped 36.4% in 30 days and Moderna (MRNA), a pharmaceutical and biotechnology company, is down 30.4% in the same period. Inflationary pressure and fear of a global recession have driven investors away from riskier assets. By seeking shelter in cash positions, mainly in the dollar itself, this protective movement has caused the U.S....
Bitcoin price falls under $19K as data shows pro traders avoiding leverage longs
An $860 surprise price correction on Sept. 6 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $19,820 to $18,960 in less than two hours. The movement caused $74 million in Bitcoin futures liquidations at derivatives exchanges, the largest in almost three weeks. The current $18,733 level is the lowest since July 13 and marks a 24% correction from the rally to $25,000 on Aug. 15. Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView It is worth highlighting that a 2% pump toward $20,200 happened in the early hours of Sept. 6, but the move was quickly subdued and Bitcoin resumed trading near $19,800 within the hour. Ether’s (ETH) price action was more interesting, gaining 7% in the 48 hours preceding the market correction. Any conspiracy theories regarding investors changing their position to favor the altcoin can be dismiss...
Former CFTC commissioner Jill Sommers joins FTX US Derivatives board
Jill Sommers, who served as a commissioner at the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has joined the board of directors for FTX US Derivatives. In a Thursday announcement, crypto exchange FTX US’ derivatives arm said Sommers had become its latest board member in a move seeming to increase the company’s regulatory efforts. Sommers served as a CFTC commissioner from 2007 to 2013 under former Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush and was the managing director of regulatory affairs for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. According to Sommers, FTX US Derivatives aimed to become “the most regulated digital asset exchange in the world.” She said the board would work closely with regulators, suggesting discussions with the CFTC and others within the United States government. “Add...
Hawkish Fed comments and Bitcoin derivatives data point to further BTC downside
A $750 pump on Aug. 26 took Bitcoin (BTC) from $21,120 to $21,870 in less than two hours. However, the movement was completely erased after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the bank’s commitment to contain inflation by tightening the economy. Following Powell’s speech, BTC price dropped as low as $20,700. Bitcoin/USD 30-min price. Source: TradingView At Jackson Hole, Powell specifically mentioned that “the historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.” Right after those remarks, the U.S. stock market indexes reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.2% within the hour. On the Bitcoin chart, the affable “Bart candle,” a reference to the shape of Bart Simpson’s head, and a descriptor of BTC’s up and down...
Here’s why holding $20.8K will be critical in this week’s $1B Bitcoin options expiry
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 16.5% correction between Aug. 15 and Aug. 19 as it tested the $20,800 support. While the drop is startling, in reality, a $4,050 price difference is relatively insignificant, especially when one accounts for Bitcoin’s 72% annualized volatility. Currently, the S&P 500’s volatility stands at 31%, which is significantly lower, yet the index traded down 9.1% between June 8 and June 13. So, comparatively speaking, the index of major U.S.-listed companies faced a more abrupt movement adjusted for the historical risk metric. At the start of this week, crypto investors’ sentiment worsened after weaker conditions in Chinese real estate markets forced the central bank to reduce its five-year loan prime rate on Aug. 21. Moreover, a Goldman Sachs investment ...
Options data shows Bitcoin’s short-term uptrend is at risk if BTC falls below $23K
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly broke above $25,000 on Aug. 15, but the excitement lasted less than an hour and was followed by a 5% retrace in the next five hours. The resistance level proved to be tougher than expected but may have given bulls false hope for the upcoming $335 million weekly options expiry. Investors’ fleeting optimism reverted to a sellers’ market on Aug. 17 after BTC dumped and tested the $23,300 support. The negative move took place hours before the release of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) minutes from its July meeting. Investors expect some insights on whether the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates. The negative newsflow accelerated on Aug. 16 after a federal court in the United States authorized the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to for...
$475M in Bitcoin options expire this week — Are bulls or bears poised to win?
Bitcoin (BTC) has been posting higher lows for the past eight weeks, but during this time, BTC has not been able to flip the $24,000 resistance to support on at least three different opportunities. This is precisely why the $475 million Bitcoin options expiry on Aug. 12 might be a game changer for bulls. Considering the current regulatory pressures in play, there seems to be a good enough rationale for avoiding bullish bets, especially after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission pressed charges against a former Coinbase manager for illegal securities trading on July 21. The additional impact from the Terra (Luna) — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — ecosystem imploding and subsequent crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) registering for bankruptcy continue to weigh o...
SBI Group reports investee getting CFTC approval for OTC derivatives trading in US
The United States subsidiary of electronic trading platform developer Clear Markets has reportedly received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, to offer over-the-counter crypto derivatives products with physical settlement. In a Tuesday notice, SBI Holdings — a stakeholder of Clear Markets — said the CFTC had approved the U.S. subsidiary operating a Swap Execution Facility, in which it plans to offer derivatives trading for U.S. dollar and Bitcoin (BTC) pairs. The Japan-based financial services company said its market maker planned to expand its trading partners in the United States following pilot transactions on Clear Markets. SBI Holdings announced it had acquired a 12% stake in Clear Markets in August 2018, which it planned to increase in the future. At the...
2 metrics signal the $1.1T crypto market cap resistance will hold
Cryptocurrencies have failed to break the $1.1 trillion market capitalization resistance, which has been holding strong for the past 54 days. The two leading coins held back the market as Bitcoin (BTC) lost 2.5% and Ether (ETH) retraced 1% over the past seven days, but a handful of altcoins presented a robust rally. Crypto markets’ aggregate capitalization declined 1% to $1.07 trillion between July 29 and Aug. 5. The market was negatively impacted by reports on Aug. 4 that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating every U.S. crypto exchange after the regulator charged a former Coinbase employee with insider trading. Total crypto market cap, USD billions. Source: TradingView While the two leading cryptoassets were unable to print weekly gains, traders’ appetite...
3 key Ether derivatives metrics suggest $1,600 ETH support lacks strength
Ether (ETH) price is up 60% since May 3, outperforming leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) by 32% over that span. However, evidence suggests the current $1,600 support lacks strength as network use and smart contract deposit metrics weakened. Moreover, ETH derivatives show increasing sell pressure from margin traders. The positive price move was primarily driven by growing certainty of the Merge, which is Ethereum’s transition to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network. During the Ethereum core developers conference call on July 14, developer Tim Beiko proposed Sept. 19 as the tentative target date for the Merge. In addition, analysts expect the new supply of ETH to be reduced by up to 90% after the network’s monetary policy change, thus creating a bullish catalyst. Ethe...
Pro traders may use this ‘risk averse’ Ethereum options strategy to play the Merge
Ether (ETH) is reaching a make-it or break-it point as the network moves away from proof-of-work (PoW) mining. Unfortunately, many novice traders tend to miss the mark when creating strategies to maximize gains on potential positive developments. For example, buying ETH derivatives contracts is a cheap and easy mechanism to maximize gains. The perpetual futures are often used to leverage positions, and one can easily increase profits five-fold. So why not use inverse swaps? The main reason is the threat of forced liquidation. If the price of ETH drops 19% from the entry point, the leveraged buyer loses the entire investment. The main problem is Ether’s volatility and its strong price fluctuations. For example, since July 2021, ETH price crashed 19% from its starting point within 20 d...
