On Aug. 30, global investment bank UBS increased its view on the risk of the United States entering a recession within one year to 60%, up from 40% in June. According to economist Pierre Lafourcade, the latest data showed a 94% chance of the economy contracting, but added that it “does not morph into a full-blown recession.” Partially explaining the difference is the “extremely low levels” of non-performing loans, or defaults exceeding 90 days from credit borrowers. According to Citigroup Chief Executive Jane Fraser, the institution “feels very good about” liquidity and credit quality. Furthermore, Reuters states that the financial industry wrote off merely 0.1% of its loans in the 2Q. The problem is that even in the now-improbable scenario of avoiding a...