Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems find value bets and he shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew has three selections at Ludlow (jumps), Ffos Las (jumps) and Dundalk (all-weather Flat) on Wednesday, March 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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LUDLOW 2.55
ANOTHER BROWN BEAR (system – young chase debutants carrying top weight in a handicap)
It’s often significant when a horse makes its chase debut in handicap company, rather than take the novice chase route, especially when they carry top weight. Since the beginning of 2010, those young chasers (aged four, five or six) who have done so in Class 4 or lower company won 94 of their 525 starts (17.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £38.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. Point-to-point winner ANOTHER BROWN BEAR ran well here over hurdles in November and it looks significant that Nicky Henderson brings him back for his chase debut after a short break.
FFOS LAS 5.25
TIME LEADER (system – Tom Lacey stable switchers)
In-form Tom Lacey does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 12 of the 55 qualifiers (21.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £21.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. The strike-rate improves to 27.6% (eight wins from 29 runners) in handicaps only for a profit of £20.13. TIME LEADER caused a 28-1 upset at Carlisle on November’s reappearance for Tim Reed and could prove to be a bargain buy for new connections at £6,500.
DUNDALK 7.30
NORTH WIND (system – No Nay Never progeny, switching from Tapeta)
Progeny of the sire No Nay Never have a poor record at the three Tapeta venues (Newcastle, Southwell and Wolverhampton) but they often perform well when switched to turf or Polytrack. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of over £55 to a £1 level stake at SP and NORTH WIND might be worth chancing on his stable debut, despite a tricky draw in stall 1.
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