Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a former bookmaker and three-time Scoop6 winner. Andrew uses stats and systems to unearth value bets and shares his thoughts for New Year’s Day below.
Andrew was among the winners again with Grand Turina at Warwick on Friday and has six selections on New Year’s Day. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the hectic festive fixture list, and all year round:
FAKENHAM 12.45
POWERFUL POSITION (system – Christian Williams, long travellers)
Christian Williams has a good strike-rate with his runners who travel more than 250 miles to the races, scoring with 27 of the 95 qualifiers for a profit of £11.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. Most of the winners were well supported and had we got on at best prices the night before that profit would have been over £38.00. He has two qualifiers in this amateur jockeys’ handicap chase – Primal Focus and POWERFUL POSITION. Both will appreciate the likely strong pace, though the last-named looks better equipped to cope with the soft ground.
EXETER 1.15
DUBROVNIK HARRY (system – Harry Fry at Exeter)
DUBROVNIK HARRY displayed obvious signs of inexperience when an eyecatching third here on his racecourse debut last month and can go two places better. His trainer has a great record here, scoring with 41 of his 133 runners (30.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £54.48 to a £1 level stake at SP.
EXETER 1.50
GAMARET (system – Ffos Las bumper winners next time out)
Ffos Las form still tends to be underrated by the betting market but it often works out, with bumper winners doing especially well when bidding to follow up. Backing them all would have found 43 winners from 129 bets (33.3%) for a profit of £43.59. GAMARET, a 6-1 shot, scored with more in hand than the three-quarters of a length margin suggested when making a winning debut in late October and can land this novices’ hurdle.
FAKENHAM 1.55
JONY MAX (system – Christian Williams, long travellers)
JONY MAX is another qualifier on the Christian Williams/long travellers system (see 12.45 Fakenham) and he’s going to be happier back at this 2m5f trip after failing to stay 3m5f when a 20-length third to better-fancied stablemate Uno Mas here last month.
CHELTENHAM 2.00
MAGIC SAINT (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, finishing fourth or worse last time out)
Since the beginning of 2010, Paul Nicholls has a 27 from 115 record with his runners in first-time cheekpieces who finished fourth or worse last time out. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £38.51 to a £1 level stake at SP. MAGIC SAINT, only 1lb higher than when fifth in 2019 Paddy Power Gold Cup, might be able to sneak into the frame at huge odds.
EXETER 3.00
CHAMBARD (system – Venetia Williams, first run after a wind operation, fresh)
Venetia Williams has an eight from 19 record with her fist-time wind op horses who are running in handicaps after a break of at least 150 days for a profit of £59.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. CHAMBARD, a non-runner at Uttoxeter yesterday, has been off the track for 265 days since disappointing over hurdles at Warwick but the wind op and break could bring about considerable improvement now that he returns to fences.
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