Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value picks and shares his thoughts for Saturday’s racing below.
There’s some fantastic racing on Saturday December 11th and Andrew has five selections at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Wolverhampton. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the upcoming and hectic festive fixture list, and all year round:
CHELTENHAM 1.50
JOKE DANCER (system – time of year)
JOKE DANCER tends to come good at about this time of year, recording form figures of 615111113FP (6-11) from December to February. He’s won third time out in three of the last four seasons and is having his third start of the current campaign today. He arrives here on the back of a fall but is worth chancing at huge odds.
DONCASTER 3.15
TWO FOR GOLD (system – time of year)
Kim Bailey’s TWO FOR GOLD thrives in winter, recording form figures of 11111131 (7-8) when racing from November to February in Class 2 or lower company. The defeat – a two-length third at Kempton – is easily excused as he jumped poorly, He’s not a huge price (around 7-4) but holds very strong claims.
WOLVERHAMPTON 4.15
LOCAL BAY (system – David O’Meara, second run for the yard, top 4 finish last time out)
David O’Meara does well with recent acquisitions from other yards, especially when they finished in the top four on their debuts for their new handler. He has a 39 from 146 record under these conditions (26.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £14.70. LOCAL BAY won well at Newcastle on his debut for O’Meara last week and will be tough to beat with Hollie Doyle in the saddle.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15
TRIBAL COMMANDER (system – dam Jessica Ennis on the all-weather)
The dam Jessica Ennis has been responsible for plenty of all-weather winners, with her offspring winning 16 of their 64 starts on artificial surfaces for a profit of £46.20 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected wins = 7.67). In handicaps only, the profit increases to £53.20 and it’s possible that TRIBAL COMMANDER could improve now that he races on synthetics for the first time. He also wears cheekpieces for the first time, a profitable angle for Ian Williams-trained Flat runners.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45
EMERALD LADY (system – sire Garswood on Tapeta)
Backing all progeny of Garswood on Tapeta would have returned a profit of £32.00 to a £1 level stake at SP and EMERALD LADY looks a likely improver now dropped to 5f for the first time and returned to this surface. She ran a good race on Newcastle’s Tapeta on her racecourse debut last month, finishing fourth over 6f despite failing to settle, and followed that with a three-length sixth on Polytrack at Kempton when going off hard over the same trip. There’s the chance we won’t see the best of her until handicapping but a fast break from her wide draw could see her hard to catch.
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