Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew found 9-1 Wolverhampton scorer NEXT SECOND on Friday and also highlighted 8-1 runner-up NACHO as the danger (CSF paid 78-1). He has five recommended bets on Saturday, August 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWMARKET 3.18
VERREAUX EAGLE (system – Free Eagle offspring, first-time visor)
Progeny of the sire Free Eagle have a useful record when fitted with a first-time visor (albei from a small sample), landing five of their 18 starts for a profit of £17.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. VERREAUX EAGLE was a big eyecatcher against the bias at Chester on his penultimate start and, though disappointing at Haydock next time, he’s worth another chance now fitted with the headgear. I’ve also backed WENTWORTH FALLS, second by a head in this race last year, and will be doing the reversed forecast.
NEWMARKET 3.53
QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE (system – nursery weight rank, good or faster)
Last week, I discussed the Johnston yard’s fantastic record in July Course handicaps, especially with horses who led or raced prominently on their latest start, and QUEEN OF DEAUVILLE qualifies as a bet for me on that system. She also qualifies on a less obvious angle – backing the second-highest weighted horse in a turf nursery on good or faster going. Every time the nursery season comes around, you’ll hear pundits say – ‘always back the top weight in a nursery’. However, this doesn’t work – in the past ten years you’d have lost over 15% on turnover (good or faster turf only). Backing the second highest-weighted runner loses less (-8%) but those who had already had at least two runs in nurseries were 72 from 363 (19.8% strike-rate) for a profit pf £41.15 (+11.3%). We’ve had a 14-1 winner from just five qualifiers so far this year and Queen Of Deauville clocked a fast time despite only finishing an outpaced seventh of eight over 6f here last time. The step up to 7f for the first time looks sure to suit.
NEWBURY 4.45
FRONTISPIECE (system – Racing League class droppers)
Newbury expert FRONTISPIECE, whose course record reads 5112471264 (3-10), wasn’t beaten far despite only finish eighth of 11 in a Racing League handicap at Doncaster last week and can return to winning ways at his favourite venue. Horses who drop in class after ‘flopping’ (finishing sixth or worse) in Racing League contests often bounce back to win at the next time of asking.
NEWBURY 5.00
RED KITE (system – Charlie & Mark Johnston, blinkered first time on previous start)
Charlie & Mark Johnston have a shocking record with first-time blinkered runners and those of you who read my spread betting column will know that I regularly field against them. However, they often bounce back to win on their next start. Since the beginning of 2016, backing any Johnston runner who wore first-time blinkers on its latest outing, regardless of whether the headgear is retained, replaced with another form of headgear or left off entirely, would have found 15 winners from 94 bets (16% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £130.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. RED KITE, usually a frontrunner, was given a patient ride at Pontefract last time (understandable given that there were other pace angles in opposition) but raced keenly as a result. He looked likely to finish well beaten but kept on strongly to grab third place in the dying strides (much to my disgust as I’d laid him three places!). The blinkers are swapped for cheekpieces and he’s worth a bet to return to winning ways.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.20
HAVANA HEAT (system – Havana Grey, 5f-6f)
Havana Grey progeny are enjoying a golden spell in sprints at the moment and no less than six of them contested a Listed fillies contest at Newbury yesterday, providing the 16-1 winner and 11-1 runner-up for a 210-1 Tote exacta. Prior to yesterday’s racing, the sire’s juveniles were 33 from 165 over 5f-6f (20% strike-rate) for a profit of £50.21. The Charles Hills-trained HAVANA HEAT beat only one home at Newbury on last month’s debut but will know more this time and is worth a speculative interest from a good draw in stall 3.
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Other Horse Racing Tips
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