The Chester May Meeting moves into it’s second day on Thursday 5th May. The ITV4 horse racing cameras are also at Chester racecourse to take in the first five races on day two. Andy Newton has the main races covered with key trends and tips.
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Chester Horse Racing Trends and Tips (ITV/RacingTV) – Thursday 5th May 2022
1.30 – ICM Stellar Sports Handicap Cl2 5f ITV4
13/13 – Won from stall 7 or lower
13/13 – Had won over 5f before
12/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Came from stall 5 or lower
11/13 – Had won between 2-6 times before
10/13 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/13 – Finished in the top 7 last time out
9/13 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
8/13 – Carried 8-10 or less in weight
8/13 – Had raced at Chester before
7/13 – Officially rated between 87-90
6/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
6/13 – Winning favourites
5/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/13 – Winners from stall 1
11 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-4
BEST BET: Another sprint to get going on day two and with ALL of the last 13 winners drawn 7 or lower this would be a negative for those drawn high – Bossipop, Soul Seeker and Count D’orsay.
11 of the last 13 winners also came from stalls 5 or lower, while4 and 5 year-olds have the slightly better record. With these in mind, the Mick Appleby runner – NIGHT ON EARTH @ 5/1 with Boylesports – is worth having in your corner. This CD winner has a good draw in 4 and will be fitter than most with 9 runs already this year (4 wins) and has useful 7lb claimer, Benoit De La Sayette, riding.
Look Out Louis, Bossipop, Militia and Mokaatil are all interesting from the older horses, but the other pick is SUNDAY SOVEREIGN (e/w) @ 6/1 with Boylesports , who is also a course winner. Draw 5 looks perfect and a recent run at Musselburgh, after a 175-day break, should have him spot-on for this.
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2.05 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl2 7f122y ITV4
17/19 – Hadn’t raced at Chester before
17/19 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Had a previous run that season
15/19 – Came between stalls 2-7
12/19 – Carried 9-1 or less
11/19 – Finished third or better last time out
11/19 – Placed favourites
7/19 – Winning favourites (or joint)
5/19 – Ran at Newbury last time out
5/19 – Placed horses from stall 1
2/19 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/19 – Winners from stall 1
BEST BET: Another race that the draw has a fair stat to take into account – 15 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 2-7. This is good news for City Runner, Koy Koy, Value Theory, Outside World, Bastogne and Spacer.
Of that bunch, Koy Koy is interesting into a handicap for the first time but and the Mark Johnston pair of OUTSIDE WORLD (e/w) @ 13/2 with Boylesports and VALUE THEORY (e/w) @ 8/1 with Boylesports are the ones we’ll be playing here.
Outside World has a fair draw in 5 and returned to the track just 5 days ago with a solid fourth at Doncaster. Off the same mark here and can be expected to have come on for that run too.
Value Theory is also drawn well in 4 and should also be better for her first run in 231 days last month at Musselburgh. Dropped a pound and the experienced Franny Norton gets the leg-up.
2.40 – Homeserve Dee Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 1m2f75y ITV4
18/19 – Had not run at Chester before
17/19 – Yet to win over this trip before
16/19 – Came from stall 3 or higher
15/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Favourites finished in the frame
12/19 – Failed to win another race after taking this
10/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/19 – Had a previous run that season
9/19 – Winners that went onto run in the Epsom Derby
8/19 – Won by the favourite
8/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
6/19 – Won their previous race
0/19 – Winners from stall 1
Only Kris Kin in 2003 went onto win this and then the Epsom Derby in the last 18 years
BEST BET: A tight renewal of this Listed race that is often deemed a Derby Trial, but only Kris Kin in recent times has landed both races.
It’s hard to ignore the good record of the Aidan O’Brien yard though – they’ve won 8 of the last 19 runnings so their Ryan Moore-ridden STAR OF INDIA @ 6/4 with Boylesports gets the nod. This 3 year-old wasn’t disgraced when 5th to recent 2000 Guineas runner-up Native Trail at Newmarket in the Craven Stakes, but his pedigree (Galileo) suggests he’ll be much better now up in trip (1m2 1/2f).
A case really can be made for all the other five runners, but with the Roger Varian yard winning this last year their Dubai Poet, who was a fair second last time at Newcastle can give the main pick most to think about.
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3.10 – tote.co.uk Proud To Support Chester Racecourse Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f89y ITV4
18/19 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
13/19 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
13/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
11/19 – Had a previous run that season
11/19 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/19 – Won by the favourite
9/19 – Had run before at Chester
5/19 – Ran in the John Porter (Newbury) last time out
5/19 – Won by trainer Aidan O’Brien
5/19 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/19 – Won by trainer Sir Michael Stoute (won it 6 times in all)
BEST BET: A race that tends to go to a horse at the head of the market – 18 of the last 19 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting.
Therefore, the Ralph Beckett runner – ALBAFLORA @ 6/4 with Boylesports – is the call. This 5 year-old mare is als the top-rated in the field and also gets the handy fillies’ allowance. She was last seen back in October when a close second in the G1 Fillies and Mares’ Stakes on Champions Day at Ascot and so this ease into a G3 will give her an obvious chance.
Add in that she also won first time out last season, then the 201-day break for her isn’t a worry.
Of the rest, the only course winner in the field is Invite, but the main dangers to the selection look to be Believe In Love, who also gets the fillies allowance, Hamish, Alounak and Thunderous.
3.40 – Boodles Raindance Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m 2 1/2f ITV4
9/10 – Carried between 8-11 and 9-3 in weight
9/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Had won at the track before
8/10 – Returned 7/1 or bigger
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or higher
8/10 – Won over at least 1m2f
8/10 – Rated 79-84 (inc)
8/10 – Returned between 5/1 and 9/1 in the betting
7/10 – Winners from stall 6 or higher
7/10 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
7/10 – Won 4+ times in the past
7/10 – Unplaced favourites
7/10 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winners from stall 8
1/10 – Winning favourites
0/10 – Winners from stall 1
BEST BET: A tricky handicap to end but run over 1m2f the draw trend is flipped on it’s head here with 8 of the last 10 winners coming from stalls 5 or higher. This would be a negative for those drawn low – Desert Emperor, Diderot, Pride Of Priory, Group One Power and Aasheq.
9 of the last 10 winners carried between 8-11 and 9-3, which would be a plus for the bottom seven on the card, while horses aged between 4-6 have the better record too.
Taking those main stats into account, the Mark Johnston runner – ENFRANCHISE (e/w) @ 5/1 with Boylesports – stands out frmo draw 13. This 4 year-old gets in with 9-2 but also has the useful claimer Andrew Breslin riding to take off another 3lbs. She’s also a consistent horse having raced 12 times in her career and hit the top three 10 times.
Pride Of America is another to respect, but it’s interesting that Mark Johnston also has the 4 year-old – FAIRMAC (e/w) @ 18/1 with Boylesports – in the race here and if you can forgive his recent run at Epsom, when racing too free and on a track that likely didn’t suit, then he can go well on a mark just a pound higher than his last win.
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Chester May Meeting Race Time – Thursday 5th May 2022
- 1:30 – ICM Stellar Sports Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4
- 2:05 – Deepbridge Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7½f ITV4
- 2:40 – Homeserve Dee Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
- 3:10 – tote.co.uk Proud To Support Chester Racecourse Ormonde Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m5½f ITV4
- 3:40 – Boodles Raindance Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-90) 1m2½f ITV4
- 4:15 – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f SKY
- 4:50 – Roofing Consultants Group Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m4½f SKY
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