Baylor prediction: Will Bears finally find home success with opportunity vs. Iowa State?

It’s almost unfathomable to think that it’s been over a year since the Bears beat an FBS team at home. Yet, even the 30-7 win over FCS-member Long Island on Sept. 16 wasn’t an impressive showing. It really shows the struggle this program is enduring after winning a program-record 12 games in 2021.

Baylor has the chance to start shifting that narrative with a homecoming contest against Iowa State on Saturday. The Bears are coming off a 32-29 win at Cincinnati and will clash with the Cyclones, who are coming off their bye after thrashing the Bearcats 30-10 the week prior in the Queen City.

Iowa State at Baylor

When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday at McLane Stadium in Waco

Records: Baylor (3-4, 2-2 Big 12); Iowa State (4-3, 3-1 Big 12)

Last meeting: Baylor snuck away with a 31-24 win over Iowa State on Sept. 24, 2022 at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa.

TV: Big 12 Now on ESPN+

What’s at stake?

Baylor’s win at Cincinnati proved there is still something to play for this season. The Bears are halfway home to bowl eligibility, something they’ve accomplished for the last two years and done in 11 of the last 13 seasons. So this game against Iowa State presents a huge opportunity to put Baylor in position to make it three straight years of reaching a bowl game.

Is that to say there’s zero path with a loss? No, absolutely not. But the road gets a lot foggier with a loss, which puts a lot of pressure on the Bears to get the job done. You also have to factor in the fact that Baylor hasn’t defeated an FBS opponent at home in over a year. That’s not ideal to have in head coach Dave Aranda’s fourth year, so lots of eyes will be on that storyline as well.

The Bears have to figure out why they can’t win at home. They were able to start fast against the Bearcats last week, ultimately winning on the road to make them 2-0 away from McLane Stadium. But when Baylor plays from the comfort of Waco, it can’t seem to come out of the tunnel with energy and be able to execute on the field. This game could change some minds or continue steering people down a frustrated path.

When Baylor has the ball

Last week, the emphasis was the throw the ball to be able to run it better. And while the first running back rushing attempt didn’t come until the 5:21 mark in the second quarter, the Bears had somewhat of a decent day on the ground. They were held to under 100 rushing yards, but they were able to find yards to gain in the second half, especially.

Baylor ranks 109th in the country in rushing yards per game (115.6) going into this weekend. It has also only punched in eight rushing touchdowns so far. By comparison, Kansas State leads the Big 12 with 20 rushing TDs. So it’s safe to say running the ball hasn’t gone super well, but throwing it has.

The Bears have the nation’s No. 28 passing offense, as they’ve relied on that for success, especially as of late. Wide receivers Monaray Baldwin and Ketron Jackson Jr. have really stepped up and given quarterback Blake Shapen options. Baylor owns the fifth-best passing offense in the Big 12 in terms of passing yards per game with 284.7.

Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and Aranda will have to lean on the run game on Saturday since Iowa State has such a stout secondary. Expect them to be a little hesitant to throw the ball.

When Iowa State has the ball

The Cyclones have one of the best offensive lines in the country. And while this team looks a lot different from the 2021 squad that was last in Waco, the schematic makeup is very similar. They’ll definitely use that O-line to their advantage and try to set the tone up front early and often.

Baylor hasn’t been able to get after the quarterback much or live in the backfield, as Cincinnati exploded for nearly 300 rushing yards between three players. Iowa State’s starting quarterback Rocco Becht should have plenty of time back there to make plays, especially since his big men up front have only allowed five sacks on the year, tied for sixth-lowest nationally.

Eli Sanders and Cartevious Norton can hit the holes running and utilize their change-of-speed ability to expose Baylor’s weak front seven. Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins take the two top receiving spots for the Cyclones, as they’ll look to find separation on a Bears secondary that’s actually done a pretty good job stopping the pass.

Baylor has the nation’s No. 34 passing defense.

Prediction

This is such a weird game to predict. Both squads are in unique spots, and advanced analytics have this one being a tightly contested battle, which it will probably end up being. Baylor benefits from being at home, but the lack of an effective running game is a huge concern going into this one.

The Bears have the talent at the running back positions, and they’ve made some changes on the O-line to maybe fix where it starts up front, but they haven’t proven anything just yet. The second half of the Cincinnati game doesn’t move the needle quite yet, but this game is a great chance to do so.

Iowa State’s secondary will hold up and the Cyclones’ O-line will give Becht all day to operate. It won’t be as dominant of a showing as Texas Tech had in Waco, but it’ll be another efficient offense picking apart Baylor’s lackluster defense.

Score: Iowa State 24, Baylor 17

Twitter/X: @MichaelHaag_

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