After more than 20 years in the business, leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount lifts the lid on his handy betting systems. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, and can also be heard on William Hill Radio. Andrew has four statistical-based horse racing betting tips for today’s action.
Andrew found Pontefract winner GREENBARN (11-4 from 4-1) yesterday and has four selections at Yarmouth, Newcastle, Gowran Park and Kempton Park on Tuesday October 19th:
YARMOUTH
4.50 – CROCUS (system – sire New Bay, 3yos, recent run)
Three-year-old progeny of New Bay have a good record when returned to the track relatively quickly (within six weeks), landing 34 of their 128 starts (26.6%) for a profit of £40.05 to a £1 level stake at SP. CROCUS hasn’t set the world alight in her two handicap outings to date, though the very fast ground was blamed for her mid-division effort at Chepstow and she couldn’t get involved from off the pace at Kempton. Her patient style could be advantageous at Yarmouth today because of the forecast headwind and the slower ground is expected to suit.
NEWCASTLE
5.05 – DONIZETTI (system – sire Twilight Son 3yos, 5f-7f, sound surface)
Progeny of Twilight Son tend to improve when they turn three and they perform especially well over 5f-7f when given good/faster turf or an all-weather surface. Combining these factors would have found 38 winners from 188 bets (20.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £19.21 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners was less than 27 and though the profit at SP is only just over 10%, plenty of the qualifiers were available at much bigger prices earlier. DONIZETTI was a 10-1 course winner on this system last week and can follow up.
GOWRAN PARK
5.15 – MOUNTAIN FOX (system – sire Fast Company on soft or heavy going)
MOUNTAIN FOX was unplaced in both starts last month but they came on officially good going and he’ll be happier on today’s soft ground. He’s not the easiest horse to win with – just three victories from 50 career starts – but he often places when the mud is flying and an each-way approach is recommended. His four runs on ground described as yielding to soft or softer this year have produced four placed efforts, at odds of 11-1, 11-1, 12-1 and 11-1. His record here at Gowran Park stands at 22743339441, with both unplaced efforts coming over an inadequate 1m trip.
KEMPTON
8.00 – DIAMOND BAY (system – sire New Bay, 3yos, recent run)
DIAMOND BAY is a qualifier on the same angle as Crocus (see Yarmouth preview) and Tom Ward’s gelding has form figures of 111 (3-3) since stepped up in trip beyond a mile, including an impressive course and distance success on his penultimate start.
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