Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to uncover value betting opportunities and starts the new week with several more.
Andrew has six horse racing selections at Ludlow, Kempton, Ayr and Chelmsford on Monday November 22nd:
LUDLOW 2.00
LOUGH DERG LYRIC (system – Archie Watson stable debutants, ridden by Brodie Hampson)
Archie Watson has a good strike-rate at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 26 of the 104 qualifiers since the start of 2016 for a profit of £10.67. Those ridden by Brodie Hampson have form figures of 2111114 (5-7) for a profit of £17.10. LOUGH DERG LYRIC might be able to sneak into the frame at a big price on his first run for the yard.
KEMPTON 2.55
INCA ROSE (system – Kim Bailey hurdlers in first-time cheekpieces)
Prominent racers usually enjoy a big edge at Kempton and INCA ROSE is likely to be on the front end throughout in this 3m handicap hurdle. He was narrowly beaten in a first-time tongue-tie at Warwick in the spring when we last saw him and he now goes handicapping in first-time cheekpieces. Trainer Kim Bailey is 15 from 74 with hurdlers in this headgear since 2009, for a profit of £39.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
AYR 3.15
SEEMORELIGHTS (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Sandy Thomson usually shows a profit each season with his runners in the peak winter period and, since 2013, had we simply bet them all from November 1 until the end of February we’d have won 84 of our 446 bets (18.8% strike-rate) and made a huge profit of £246.11 to a £1 level stake at SP. The yard is starting to hit top gear and SEEMORELIGHTS makes each-way appeal on his first start following a wind operation. He would have placed in all three course starts for a late fall on one occasion and the drop back to 2m looks a good idea.
CHELMSFORD 5.00
INVINCIBLY (system – poorly drawn on Lingfield’s all-weather LTO)
Those drawn low usually struggle on Lingfield’s Polytrack, as they race on the inside rail where the surface is slower than the middle of the track. Simply backing any horse who was drawn 1, 2, 3 or 4 in a handicap of eight or more runners at Lingfield last time out would have returned a profit of more than £85 since the beginning of August. INVINCIBLY made the running in the ‘swamp’ when third in a 1m Class 2 handicap there last time and did well to hold on for third behind two rivals who challenged much wider. His record since wind surgery now reads 2113 (2-4) and he could be hard to catch despite his wide draw.
CHELMSFORD 5.30
SHALLOW HAL (system – sire Mayson with first-time blinkers)
SHALLOW HAL hasn’t raced on the all-weather since his short-head second at Southwell in February where he clocked a fast time in the process. His last five all-weather runs at tonight’s 6f trip have yielded form figures of 12112 and, though yet to race on Polytrack, he looks worth chancing in the first-time blinkers. Progeny of Mayson are eight from 53 in first-time blinkers for a profit of £30.20.
CHELSMFORD 7.00
YUHIBU (system – Jamie Osbrone handicap debutants, recent run)
In the past five years, Jamie Osborne has a useful record with his handicap debutants, with 17 of the 138 qualifiers scoring for a profit of £108.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running over a trip of 7f or further were 15 from 102 (expected winners = 7.84) for a profit of £116.00. YUHIBU shaped as though tonight’s 1m2f trip were needed when outpaced in 1m novice raced here and at Lingfield on his first two starts and the drop to 7f was against him at Kempton last time. He’s likely to fare better tonight.
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