Horse racing advisor Andrew Mount has over 20 years experience in the industry and is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew’s stats-based approach to betting has been firing in the winners already this week (18-1, 15-2 and 6-1) and he has uncovered more angles for Friday’s racing.
Andrew has been in good form this week and he’s hoping for more fireworks from his four selections at Fontwell, Hexham, Warwick and Dundalk on Friday November 5th:
FONTWELL 12.40
GOLD IN DOHA (system – Harry Fry, second run after a wind op, finished in the top 3 last time out)
Systems with small sample sizes are potentially dangerous as it might just be randomness that has led to profits, but I have several that I monitor and some I will back with hard cash if the odds are right (the Antony Brittain first-time visored system which threw up 15-2 winner Inexplicable earlier this week being a good example). In-form Harry Fry has a good record with is runners on their second start after a wind operation, especially if they finished in the first three last time out. He’s struck with nine of the 20 qualifiers for a profit of £7.88 to a £1 level stake at SP and those who ran in non-handicaps recorded form figures of 15111111B113 (9-12) for a profit of £15.88. GOLD IN DOHA was beaten by 24 lengths when a 14-1 third in a Kempton bumper in February but that was still encouraging given the pace bias at that track. Front-runners enjoy a massive advantage on the jumps course at Kempton and the winner and runner-up were up with the pace throughout. Nina The Terrier, another one given a patient ride in that Kempton bumper, was beaten by almost 30 lengths in fifth but has won three times since, including at Newbury yesterday to give the form a timely boost.
HEXHAM 2.10
FULGURIX (system – Harry Whittington new recruits, hurdles only)
Harry Whittington does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other, especially the hurdlers. They have an eight from 49 record for a profit of £51.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. He had a 9-1 winner at Ffos Las on this system last week and FULGURIX, who has switched from the Colin Tizzard yard, looks interesting on his stable debut here.
WARWICK 4.05
FORTUNA LIGNA (system – Anthony Honeyball, first-time tongue-tie in bumpers)
The mares’ bumper that closes Warwick’s card looks very competitive but it might be worth having a small interest on Anthony Honeyball’s debutante FORTUNA LIGNA. She wears a tongue-tie and her handler is 12 from 50 with his bumper runners who are fitted with this headgear for the first time. Backing them all would have returned a profit of £50.74 to a £1 level stake at SP.
DUNDALK 4.15
GUILD (system – Frankel progeny on the AW, 4yo+, 1m4f+)
Older progeny of the sire Frankel tend to improve for a trip on the all-weather and had we backed all those aged four plus over 1m4f or further we’d have won 29 of our 102 bets (28.4% strike-rate) and made a profit of £33.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. GUILD was a 6-1 winner on this system last week and can follow up.
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