Andrew Mount is a leading adviser, broadcaster and journalist in the horse racing industry with more than 20 years of experience. He makes regular contributions to sporting print publications like the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook. Andrew also writes for the GG.co.uk website. He is an expert pundit on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV too. Andrew likes a systems-based statistical approach to betting.
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After putting up plenty of winners in his daily column throughout the week, Andrew has eight more fancies today. Check out his selections from Ayr, Catterick, Newbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton for this Saturday here:
Ayr
1.20 – MAKALU (system – Mehmas 2yos, fourth or subsequent starts)
Juvenile progeny of Mehmas tend to improve as the season progresses. If we backed all those with at least three previous runs under their belts, we would have found 48 winners from 237 bets (20.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £71.39 to a £1 level stake at SP.
MAKALU fits the pattern perfectly – he lost his first three races at odds of 7-2, 5-4 and 7-1 and then scored on starts four (11-1) and five (4-1). Now that he has learned what the game is all about, he can complete his hat-trick.
Catterick
4.45 – LOVE IS GOLDEN (system – Mark Johnston-trained Golden Horn 3yos, 1m4f+)
Mark Johnston has a fine record with progeny of Golden Horn, a sire whose offspring improve with time and distance. Had we backed all of his current crop of three-year-olds, we’d have found 14 winners from 56 bets (25% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.28. LOVE IS GOLDEN looks the answer to this 1m4f handicap.
Newbury
2.50 – ILARAAB (system – William Haggas first-time cheekpieces, 4yo+)
William Haggas a solid record when fitting one of his older horses with first-time cheekpieces, scoring with 13 of the 60 qualifiers since the beginning of 2010 for a profit of £43.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. ILARAAB, only the second Sheikh Ahmed Al Maktoum-owned qualifier in that period (the other was Addeybb who won at 5-1), is taken to upset shorter-priced stablemate Al Aasy.
5.05 – WINTERWATCH (system – Newcastle AW frontrunners switching to turf)
It’s very difficult to lead from start to finish on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, especially on the round course (distances of 1m2f or further). Last-time out Newcastle (1m2f+) frontrunners have a good record when switched to turf for their next outing, winning 30 of their 182 starts (16.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.25 to £1. Those who finished in the top six last time have a superior record (27 winners from 110 bets, +£55.25) and WINTERWATCH qualifies here.
Newmarket
1.30 – LAST SUNSET (system – Saeed Bin Suroor first-time hood)
LAST SUNSET has lost eight in a row since scoring on her racecourse debut at Kempton last summer, but the first-time hood could revitalise her. Saeed Bin Suroor has a 19 from 41 record with this headgear in Britain and Ireland since the start of 2016 (46.4% strike-rate). Backing them all would have yielded a profit of £35.80 to a £1 level stake. He’s three from seven with the qualifiers at Newmarket (+£22.25).
4.25 – MARK OF RESPECT (system – 3yos in open handicaps (1m+) with best LTO speed figure)
Three-year-olds with the best last-time out speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings) have a good record in all-aged handicaps, winning 309 of their 1221 races in the past five seasons against an expected win figure of 281. Those lower down the weights (eighth or lower in the weight rankings) won 49 of their 265 starts (18.5%) for a profit of £48.66 to the usual £1 stake. MARK OF RESPECT raced on the slowest part of the track when third at Salisbury last time and has a good jockey booked for this amateur riders’ contest.
Wolverhampton
6.00 – LILKIAN (system – Wolverhampton 6f draw angle)
A middle draw is usually helpful at Wolverhampton, as those drawn wide are forced to cover too much ground and those drawn very low often end up on the inside rail which can ride slower. This year, had we simply bet all the runners in stalls 5, 6, 7 or 8 in 6f handicaps we’d be in front to the tune of £88.38. LILKIAN was a big eyecatcher when a 16-1 fourth from stall 12 over course and distance back in July and won the next twice. He’s better berthed in stall 6.
7.00 – CHILLSEA (system – Tom Ward stable switchers)
Tom Ward is relatively new to the training ranks, but the early signs are encouraging. He sent out 11 winners from 160 runners in 2020 – his first full year as a trainer. Ward has already saddled 27 winners this year from a similar number of runners. We’d lose money by backing his horses blind, but he does well with the ones that switch from other yards.
Three of the 15 qualifiers scored at the first time of asking (+£15.50 to a £1 level stake) and a further three finished second (12-1, 3-1 and 9-4). This is obviously a small sample, but all three winners came on the all-weather and CHILLSEA, who showed form here when with Richard Fahey, might be able to make it four.
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