Andrew Mount’s horse racing betting tips column kicks off another week with five fancies for this Monday. Following 20 years plus in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster passes on gems of information. Andrew writes for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus tips for GG.co.uk. He’s also a regular pundit on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV. Andrew loves a stats driven approach and this produces profitable betting systems!
Andrew has selections from Bath, Hamilton and Newcastle today, so get the lowdown on those below:
Bath
1.50 – MYSTICAL MUSIC (systems – Ralph Beckett first-time blinkers & Ralph Beckett second run in a nursery)
First-time blinkers is a profitable angle for Ralph Beckett-trained handicappers, with 18 winners from 77 runners in the past five years (23.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £78.72 to the usual £1 stake. His juveniles also do well when having their second start in a nursery handicap, with 15 if the 53 qualifiers scoring since 2013 for a profit of £40.58. MYSTICAL MUSIC fits both angles.
4.00 – KENSTONE (system – Adrian Wintle local runners)
There are only two tracks within 50 miles of Adrian Wintle’s Gloucestershire base – Bath and Chepstow – and he excels at both. Had we simply backed his runners blind at these two venues we’d have won 18 of our 70 bets (25.7% strike-rate) and made a huge profit of £75.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (over 107% on turnover). He has three qualifiers today – Plansina (2.55), KENSTONE (4.00) and Blue Hero (4.30).
Plansina and Blue Hero are not certain to encounter the strong early gallop they need, so Kenstone looks the pick. He was only eighth of 13 over course and distance last time but he paid for chasing the very strong early gallop (the first six came from off the pace) and he did second best of those ridden prominently. With less pace pressure today, he can bounce back.
Hamilton
3.20 – END ZONE (system – Jockey Jane Elliott in small fields on turf)
Jane Elliott is a much-improved jockey this year and her mounts still tend to go off at bigger prices than they should. She seems much better on turf than the All-Weather and is especially astute when it comes to judging the pace in small field/tactical affairs. Since the start of the 2018 season, her record in turf races of nine or fewer runners stands at 42 winners from 263 bets (16%) for a profit of £68.60 to a £1 level stake at SP.
The expected number of winners based on their odds was less than 30. END ZONE wasn’t beaten far when seventh under a patient ride at Ayr last time and that race is already working out well, with the runner-up and third both scoring on their next outings and the fifth since finishing second by a nose. End Zone was a winner at Carlisle in May when last racing on ground softer than good and is 1lb lower today.
Newcastle
4.55 – ARADENA (system – sire Helmet on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, 2-3yos)
Younger progeny of Helmet have a good record on the All-Weather at Newcastle, winning 15 of their 114 starts (13.2%) for a profit of £19.70 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who recorded a top six finish on their latest outing were 18 from 66 (18.2%) for a profit of £25.20 and the fillies were six from 27 (22.2%) for a profit of £42.50. ARADENA clocked a fast time when third at Wolverhampton on her Tapeta debut 19 days ago and her patient running style is usually an asset here.
8.30 – ORIENTAL LILY (system – AW speed angle)
The market looks to have overreacted to ORIENTAL LILY and her last-of-ten effort at Ayr on her latest start. The betting has failed to take into account the fast time she clocked when third here on her penultimate start. That Ayr run wasn’t as bad as it looked (the same one in which End Zone finished seventh – see 3.20 Hamilton aove), as her patient style was at a huge disadvantage. A strong gallop could see her bounce back tonight.
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