Andrew Mount’s latest horse racing betting tips column has the best bets for Friday. Following 20-plus years in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster shares his systems with punters. Andrew writes regular columns in the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, and his tips appear on GG.co.uk. He works as a pundit on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV too. Andrew takes a stats angle on his betting and creates clever systems for punters to follow!
Following a 7/2 winner at Warwick yesterday, Andrew is back with more fancies. Get the lowdown on his picks from Ascot, Dundalk, Hexham and Newcastle right here:
Ascot
1.55 – TASFEEQ (systems – Marcus Tregoning last-time out winners, recent run & sire Oasis Dream at Ascot)
Marcus Tregoning’s last-time out winners have a great record when returned to the track quickly (within four weeks), landing 94 of their 348 starts (27% strike-rate) for a profit of £100.32 to a £1 level stake at SP. TASFEEQ contributed when scoring at Bath last time, 15 days after his Newmarket July Course win, and might be able to complete his hat-trick. He’s yet to race at Ascot but progeny of Oasis Dream have won 52 of their 417 course outings (12.5%) for a small profit of £24.60 to £1 and that can be enhanced if we only backed the colts and geldings (14.2%, +£77.28).
Hexham
2.55 – OTELLO MOOR (system – sire Milan, first run after wind surgery)
Chase debutant OTELLO MOOR qualifies as a bet for me on five individual angles but the most interesting one is the record of Milan progeny after a wind operation. Had we backed them all since the end of January 2018 (when wind operations first had to be declared) we would have found 16 winners from 73 bets (22% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £126.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. In chase company only, the strike-rate improves to 33.3% (nine wins from 27 bets, +£83.38).
Dundalk
5.15 – SASSY RASCAL (system – sire Mehmas at Dundalk, 5f-7f)
Progeny of Mehmas have a solid record on Polytrack and those who have lined up at Dundalk over the shorter trips (5f-7f) won eight of their 45 starts for a profit of £30.58. SASSY RASCAL appreciated the cut back to 5f and switch to Polytrack when scoring at Lingfield last time and the likely strong pace will suit in this 14-runner Listed contest.
5.45 – APPLE OF HIS EYE (system – sire Mehmas at Dundalk, 5f-7f)
APPLE OF HIS EYE qualifies as a bet on the same angle as Sassy Rascal (see 5.15 Dundalk). She’s shown ability in the face of some stiff tasks in three turf outings and looked in need of the return to this 7f trip when a respectable 14-1 seventh of 22 in a Curragh maiden last time.
Newcastle
8.30 – BUNIANN (system – Paul Midgley 5f jockey angle)
Last year’s winner BUNIANN was only 13th of the 15 runners at Redcar last time but raced on the slowest part of the track from his high draw and actually did second best of the small group who came down the stands’ side. That took his turf score to 0-15 and he’s best judged on his 5f Newcastle form figures of 152131213 (4-9).
Paul Midgley has a 21 from 107 record when using jockey Kevin Stott in 5f handicap (19.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £14.06 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had raced within the past 14 days won 11 of their 40 starts for a profit of £41.38. Buniann ran just nine days ago and Stott takes the ride.
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