An Academy Voter, Professional Oddsmaker, and Critic Predict the 2025 Oscars Winners

Some years, it feels like the winners of the Oscars have been pre-determined well in advance of the actual ceremony. In 2025, though, predicting who will win at the 97th annual Academy Awards is much more up in the air. Even the experts are saying this: “Can you remember a season where there’s ever been this much swapping of the No. 1 seat? The amount of times everyone was so sure about the front-runner, and then it would change in the next couple of days,” an awards season strategist recently told Vulture.

Who were the frontrunners when the Academy was actually voting on this year’s awards? That’s what we’re trying to guess. To take on this challenge, Consequence has assembled its own crew of experts: this humble entertainment editor, a professional betting expert (James Leyfield of Casinos.com), and a voting member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (otherwise known as AMPAS), who has asked to remain anonymous.

Below, please find all of our picks. Because we’re all about the drama, this will start with our predictions for the smaller awards, before building up to Best Picture.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anora (Neon)

James’ Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora

I think it’s going to be Anora’s year — and a Best Original Screenplay win can play a part in that.

Liz’s Prediction: Sean Baker, Anora

Looking at this year’s nominees, Anora feels like it has the momentum to win here, at least — and it’ll be well-deserved, as Sean Baker’s script is a true roller coaster of romance and betrayal.

AMPAS Voter’s Prediction: Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Hands down. Hands down. It’s the most creative. And I frankly have not forgotten the film since watching it. It’s stuck in my head forever. To me, it’s no competition.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM Studios)

James’ Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave

Hallelujah! This award looks to have Conclave’s name on it. The movie won Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes and Best Adapted Screenplay at the BAFTAs thanks to Peter Straughan’s writing. However, Nickel Boys will be hoping to work a miracle during Sunday’s ceremony: I still fancy Conclave to sneak it, but Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross’ screenplay is gaining traction.

Liz’s Prediction: Peter Straughan, Conclave

In a just world, this would go to Nickel Boys. But this is probably Conclave’s to take, given that none of the other nominees have the same kind of Best Picture momentum. (It’s also a very solid adaptation, a screenplay that moves through its story with clean precision.) That said, this is another category where if A Complete Unknown wins, its Best Picture odds improve immensely.

AMPAS Voter’s Prediction: Nickel Boys

This one was harder for me because there were some really good adaptions, I think. But just overall, the experience that you got from this adaptation — it’s Nickel Boys. That stood out the most to me. It’s so different and it’s so refreshing. It really does deserve that recognition.