A new study suggests that the absence of robust protections against AI could result in music industry workers losing up to 24% of their revenue by 2028.
Published by the International Confederation of Societies of Authors and Composers (CISAC) earlier this month, the report argued that “in an unchanged regulatory framework,” creators will see their income slashed in two ways: by losing listeners to AI-generated music, and by losing possible reimbursement from AI models trained using their work.
As it stands, the market for generative AI is growing exponentially and is expected to expand in size from $3.1 billion now to $67 billion in 2028. Based on those estimates, the study posits “music and audiovisual creators will see respectively 24% and 21% of their revenues at risk of loss,” which amounts to “a cumulative loss” of $23 billion over the five-year period.
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But as CISAC president (and former ABBA member) Björn Ulvaeus explained, governments have the power to step in and give a helping hand to creatives. “For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to film directors, screenwriters to film composers, AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities — but we have to accept that, if badly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great damage to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods.”
“Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome?” Ulvaeus continued. “This will be determined in large part by the choices made by policy makers, in legislative reviews that are going on across the world right now. It’s critical that we get these regulations right, protect creators’ rights and help develop an AI environment that safeguards human creativity and culture.”
Indeed, there is upcoming legislation in countries like Australia and New Zealand that could lead to wider protections against AI, which Ulvaeus has cited as signs of hope. “In Australia, the new senate select committee on AI report is encouraging and promising,” Ulvaeus said in a separate statement (per The Guardian). “By setting a gold standard in AI policy… Australia and New Zealand can ensure that AI serves as a tool to enhance human creativity rather than replace it. The world is watching, and the decisions made will resonate far beyond these shores.”
Meanwhile, some efforts have been made here in the United States to combat AI encroaching on artists’ livelihoods, like Tennessee’s ELVIS Act and the proposed NO FAKES Act, which would create more robust protections and received support from the RIAA, MPAA, SAG-AFTRA, Recording Academy, major music labels, and more. However, widespread protections for all musicians have yet to be implemented.
