The Irish Oaks 2022 is one of the standout horse races this Saturday (16th July) from the Curragh racecourse, and all eyes will be on the Frankie Dettori-ridden Emily Upjohn as she looks to go one better than her second in the English Oaks last month. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 Irish Oaks trends.
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What Time Is The 2022 Irish Oaks?
🕙Time: 3:45pm (UK time)
📅Date: Saturday 16th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: Curragh Races
💰 Winner: €285,000
📺 TV: RacingTV/ITV
DID YOU KNOW? 14 of the last 19 Irish Oaks winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting.
Irish Oaks Trends and Stats
Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 Irish Oaks at the Curragh using our key trends and stats
- 18/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
- 17/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 15/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 14/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
- 14/19 – Won last time out
- 13/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
- 12/19 – Placed favourites
- 11/19 – Won over 1m4f before
- 9/19 – Won by a UK-based trainer
- 9/19 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
- 8/19 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
- 7/19 – Had won a Group One before
- 7/19 – Winning favourites
- 6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 6/19 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
- 4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
- 2/19 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
- The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/2
Emily Upjohn Our 2022 Irish Oaks Tip
Okay, no prizes here for trying to be too clever – but it’s hard to see beyond the red-hot Irish Oaks favourite – EMILY UPJOHN @ 1/2 with BoyleSports
She fluffed her lines at the start of the Epsom Oaks last time out – losing many lengths as a result – and in the end that cost her the race. Yes, she still ran a blinder to only lose a shorthead behind Tuesday – who she takes on again – but without that start to the race she’ll surely be heading to the Curragh this weekend still unbeaten.
Prior to the Epsom run, she bolted up in the Musidora Stakes at York and has won three of her four starts. Frankie and Gosden are also no strangers to targeting the Irish Oaks – winning this Group One together in 2019 with Star Catcher and Enable in 2017, while Frankie has five wins in the contest and needs just one more to equal Johnny Murtagh as the winning-most jockeys.
She’s also had a nice 43 day break since that last run at Epsom, with connections not getting drawn into Royal Ascot or even the Irish Derby that Tuesday ran in. Therefore, she’ll be fresher than most here and is expected to get back to winning ways. She can gain her revenge on Tuesday and also see off Royal Ascot (Ribbelsdale) scorer – Magical Lagoon, who looks another live danger for her to deal with.
BACK EMILY UPJOHN @ 1/2 with BoyleSports
Aidian O’Brien Has 6 Irish Oaks Wins To His Name
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish Oaks six times and needs just one more win to hold the record outright as the most successful trainer in this Group One.
He’s got a fair hand again this year with his Epsom Oaks winner – Tuesday – his main player, plus supporting acts from History, Emily Dickinson, Perotan and Toy.
Tuesday has since run against the boys in the Irish Derby, but could only manage a well-beaten fourth so needs to bounce back from that.
History is sure to attract some each-way players as she was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths behind Magical Lagoon in the Ribblesdale, while Emily Dickinson was a close second over 1m6f last time out in the G3 Stanerra Stakes at Leopardstown, so we know she stays further than this 1m4f trip.
It’s interesting though that they are pitching PEROTAN @ 33/1 with BoyleSports into a Group One race on only her second run. She won well on debut at Bellewstown just two weeks ago over this 1m4f distance and having run green that day too would have learned a lot. She’s unexposed and could easily outrun her odds.
Irish Oaks Best Outsiders
I’ve already mentioned the O’Brien runners, but two other interesting ones are the Joseph O’Brien runner – Tranquil Lady, who was 6th in the Epsom Oaks, and the Ger Lyons-trained CAIRDE GO DEO @ 22/1 with BoyleSports.
Tranquil Lady has 7 lengths to make up on Tuesday and Emily Upjohn on that Epsom Oaks run and also needs to bounce back from an average run (8th of 9) in the Pretty Polly Stakes last time out at the Curragh. The worry would be she’s only won one of her last five races and been beaten both times here at this track.
So, Cairde Go Deo gets the nod as the best outsider. She’s clearly on the up after wins at Navan and Leopardstown in Listed races and we know she stays this trip well with those successes coming over 1m5f and 1m4f.
Yes, she’ll need to improve again now upped to the top table, but has been winning her races from the front under jockey Colin Keane and might just be able to run the finish out of some of these with similar tactics. Add in that she’s been freshened up with 44 days off and that she’s also a proven course winner (7f), then of those at bigger prices she looks the most interesting.
Favourites Have A 37% Strike-rate In The Last 19 Runnings
The first key trend in favour of Emily Upjohn is that we’ve seen 37% of the last 19 Irish Oaks winners go in. That’s 7 of the last 19 market leaders being successful and three in the last 10 runnings, including 12 months ago with the short-priced Snowfall winning.
Frankie Dettori Has Won The Irish Oaks Five Times and Twice For Gosden
As mentioned, Dettori has a fine record over the years in the Irish Oaks – winning the Group One prize five times and twice in recent years for trainer John Gosden. His first win was back in 2001 with Lailano for Ed Dunlop and has since added Vintage Tipple (2003), Blue Bunting (2011), Enable (2017) and Star Catcher (2019).
Frankie needs one more Irish Oaks winner to equal the haul of 6 wins Johnny Murtagh has.
47% Of The Last 19 Irish Oaks Winners Ran In The Epsom Oaks
The final key stat in favour of Emily Upjohn, is that 9 of the last 19 Irish Oaks winners also ran in the Epsom Oaks earlier that season (47%). Snowfall backed this trend up 12 months ago too.
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Irish Oaks 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning
All odds correct as of 10:27 BST on Weds, 13 July and subject to change
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Irish Oaks Recent Winners
- 2021 – SNOWFALL (2/7 fav)
- 2020 – EVEN SO (10/1)
- 2019 – STAR CATCHER (7/2)
- 2018 – SEA OF CLASS (11/4)
- 2017 – ENABLE (2/5 fav)
- 2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (14/1)
- 2015 – COVERT LOVE (7/1)
- 2014 – BRACELET (10/1)
- 2013 – CHICQUITA (9/2)
- 2012 – GREAT HEAVENS (5/4 fav)
Watch Snowfall Winning The 2021 Irish Oaks
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2022 Curragh Race Times and Schedule | Sat 16th July
- 1:30 – Juddmonte Farms Expert Eye Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden (2yo) 7f RTV
- 2:03 – Jebel Ali Racecourse And Stables Anglesey Stakes (Group 3) (2yo) 6½f RTE1
- 2:35 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) 6½f RTE1
- 3:10 – Barberstown Castle Sapphire Stakes (Group 2) (3yo+) 5f RTE1
- 3:45 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f ITV
- 4:20 – Kildare Village Ladies Derby Handicap (4yo+) 1m4f RTE1
- 4:50 – DMG Media Nursery Handicap (2yo) 6f RTV
- 5:25 – TaxAssist Accountants Kildare-South Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (3yo+) 1m RTV
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