With 40 Grand National runners to wade through, then trying to find the winner of the Aintree Grand National is not an easy task. However, with over 180 years of history, the ‘good news’ is there’s loads of past Grand National trends and stats to help find the best profiles of past winners of the world’s greatest steeplechase.
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For Example – Did You Know? The last 7 year-old to win the Grand National was in 1940, while since 1978 only two horses have won the Grand National carrying more than 11st 5lbs
Yet every year, the ‘once-a-year’ horse racing punters are quite happy to back horses aged 7 years-old just because it might be named after their dog or favourite aunty!
Grand National Trends – The Positives
- Horses that won or finished placed in a National race of any description before
- Note horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
- Horses that like to be ridden near the pace often do well (in other wordes, avoid horses that like to be held up)
- Irish-trained Grand National horses have a good recent record in the race (won 4 of the last 6)
- Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National strike-rate
- Note horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often come back to do well (but not necessarily win)
- Horses that have won over 3 miles before is a ‘must-have’ – although, the 2021 Grand National winner – Minella Times – defied this trend having come into the race having won at just 2m6f.
Grand National Trends – The Negatives
- Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a good record – you have to go back to 1923 to find the last winner aged 13!
- Horses that have fallen or unseated 3+ times are woth avoiding
- Previous Grand National winners and past Grand National placed horses have poor returning records
- Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t fare well
- Runners that had tough races at the recent Cheltenham Festival (run the previous month) often don’t well, although Tiger Roll defied this trend 2019.
Grand National Trends: In-depth Analysis
Weight Stops Trains: Some recent Grand National winners have lumped 11st (or more) to win, but based on the recent trends make this weight your cut-off point.
If you go back over the recent winners you’ll notice only Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) have carried 11-8 or more – 23 of the last 30 Grand National winners carried 10-12 or less!
Tiger Roll won with 10st 13lbs in 2019, but defied the weight stat to win with 11st 5lbs in 2019. Last year’s winner – Minella Times – won with just 10st 3lbs.
Stamina Sapping: Having proven stamina is another ‘must-have’ when looking down the 2022 Grand National runners. Most years there are several talked-up hype horses that have shown ability, but the big unknown surrounding their chance in the Grand National is their ability to stay the ‘stamina sapping’ 4m 1/4f trip?
Prior to last year (Minella Times), you have to whizz back to 1970, and a horse called Gay Trip, to find the last winner that won having not previously won over at least 3 miles.
Age Is Only A Number: Having experience as a National Hunt horse is a key attribute when looking back at previous Grand National heros. Horses aged 8 years-old or OLDER are the certainly the ones to focus on – the last 6 winners were aged 8 or 9!
You have to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to win the race. Yet each year punters will still back horses in the betting aged 7, even though this trend is now over 80 years old!
However, don’t be too upset if your Grand National fancy is in a bit longer in the tooth – but not a teenager as between 2010 and 2014 the five winners were aged 10 and 11. But with 25 of the last 30 winners were aged 9 or older this is still a standout stat.
It is worth noting though that 4 of the last 6 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a slight turning point in this age stat. We suggest to look for horses aged between 8 and 11.
Irish Luck: Runners from across the Irish Sea have targted the Grand National with a lot of success over the years and have won the last three renewals. They will be mob-handed again with the likes of Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and last year’s winning trainer – Henryde Bromhead – three big names to look for. 7 of the last 16 winners came from an Irish-based yard, including 4 of the last 5.
Don’t Sit On The Fence: With thirty tricky fences in horse racing to jump, then having previous experience over these unique Grand National fences can be a big plus. Many recent Grand National winners had been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past – with previous runs in this race or the Becher Chase or Topham Chase, Grand Sefton Chases the other races to look for that are run over these National-style fences.
Fancy The Favourite? Betting on the Grand National always ramps up several notches in the days leading up to the race, but on race day (Sat 9th April 2022), when the once-a-year punters crawl out of the woodwork, this is when the Grand National betting market really comes alive.
With this in mind, it could pay to know that 6 of the last 30 runnings have been won by the market leader in the betting (favourite, 20%), while 16 of the last 30 (53%) favourites finished in the top four in the race.
Top Of The Market: Away from the actual Grand National favourite, it’s worth looking at the horses just behind the market leader in the betting.
This is because in recent years most Grand National winners came from the first eight of the betting market – Yes, the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, won at 100/1 in 2009, but that kind of result isn’t the norm and desite being a race with 40 runners in, it’s actually one that horse racing punters tend to get right.
11 of the last 18 Grand National winners hailed from the top 8 in the betting market – supported in 2018 with Tiger Roll winning at 10/1 (joint second favourite), plus again in 2019 with Tiger Roll winning as the 4/1 favourite. The 2021 winner – Minella Times – was 11/1 and another that came from the top 8 in the Grand National betting market.
Fit As A Fiddle: One of the most significant trends in recent years is just look how many days ago your horse last raced – and this is an easy way to narrow down the 40 horses once the final 2022 Grand National runners are out.
Most Grand National winners had raced no more than 48 days before the race. And if you want to take this trend further a large amount of recent winners actually raced less than 40 days prior to winning the Merseyside Marathon.
28 of the last 30 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 23 of the last 30 raced no more than 34 days ago! Having said that, 12 months ago, this is another trend that the winner – Minella Times – did defy as he came here off a 62-day break.
A Stable Diet: With the Grand National being a tricky race to win and one that also requires a lot of luck, it’s no shock to see 12 different trainers winning the race in the last 13 runnings. Only the Gordon Elliott yard (2019 and 2018) have won the race more than once in that period.
It is worth noting though that leading Irish owners – Gigginstown House Stud – have a top recent record in the Grand National, winning three of the last five runnings.
Aintree Grand National Trends (Last 30 Runnings)
29/30 – Officially rated 137 or higher
28/30 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
27/30 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
26/30 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
24/30 – Aged 9 or older
24/30 – Returned a double-figure price
23/30 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
23/30 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
22/30 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
19/30 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
19/30 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/30 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
17/30 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
17/30 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
16/30 – Placed favourites
15/30 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/30 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/30 – Trained in Ireland (inc 8 of the last 15 years)
7/30 – Ran in a previous Grand National
7/30 – Won last time out
6/30 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
3/30 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/30 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/30 – Ridden by Davy Russell (2 of the last 3)
0/30 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Recent Grand National Winners
2021 – Minella Times (11/1)
2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
2019 – Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 – Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 – One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 – Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 – Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 – Don’t Push It 10/1jfav
2009 – Mon Mome 100/1
2008 – Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 – Silver Birch 33/1
2006 – Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 – Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 – Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 – Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 – Bindaree 20/1
2001 – Red Marauder 33/1
2000 – Papillon 10/1
1999 – Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 – Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 – Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 – Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 – Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 – Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 – VOID RACE
1992 – Party Politics 14/1
1991 – Seagram 12/1
1990 – Mr Frisk 16/1
2022 Grand National Day Race Schedule and Times
Saturday 9th April 2022
1:45pm The EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 3 3m ½f
2.25pm The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
3.00pm The Maghull Novices’ Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 2m ITV
3.35pm The Liverpool Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 3m ½f ITV
4.15pm The Betway Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed) 3m 1f ITV
5:15pm The Randox Grand National Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 4m 2½f ITV
6.20pm The Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) 2m 1f
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