Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew shares his stats and systems-based picks for Saturday below.
Andrew has been in typically good form this week and has five selections for the horse racing action on Saturday January 8th. Follow his tips all year round on horse racing betting sites:
NEWCASTLE 12.48
BURROWS DIAMOND (system – Sue Smith January runners)
Since the beginning of 2014, Sue Smith is 56 from 214 with her runners in January (26.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £129.57 to a £1 level stake at SP (the expected number of winners, based on their prices, was only 34.21). BURROWS DIAMOND was pestered for the lead when only fourth of five here last month but could be in receipt of an easy lead today and can bounce back. He came good after Christmas last season, recording form figures of F311 (2-4).
LINGFIELD 2.20
HABIT ROUGE (system – badly drawn at Southwell last time out)
Stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 have a combined record of just five winners from 116 runners in handicaps of 8+ runners on the round course (6f+ races) at Southwell since the Fibresand was replaced by Tapeta. These same horses have a good record at the next time of asking, winning eight of their 44 starts for a profit of £7.95. Five of those switched to Lingfield next time and four of them placed (200-1, 40-1, 13-2 and 11-4). HABIT ROUGE was badly drawn in stall 2 of 11 in a hot Class 2 handicap at Southwell on New Year’s Day and though only seventh, he actually did second best of those to race on the front end. Three of his four wins have come on Polytrack and this looks a more suitable opportunity.
NEWCASTLE 3.08
SHAKA THE KING (system – Sandy Thomson, second run for the yard)
Sandy Thomson does well at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 13 of the 66 runners (19.7%) for a profit of £86.88 to the usual £1 stake. SHAKA THE KING was only fourth when favourite at Hexham on his stable debut last month but failed to settle in the first-time cheekpieces after an eight-month break. He’s worth another chance today.
KEMPTON 5.15
SAFETY FIRST (system – sire New Bay, 3yos, recent run)
Three-year-old progeny of New Bay have a useful record, winning 44 of their 191 starts (23%) for a profit of £15.24 to s £1 level stake (expected winners = 30.61). Those who’d had the benefit of a recent outing (within the past six weeks) were 37 from 139 (26.6%) for a profit of £35.79. The Clive Cox-trained SAFETY FIRST looks a likely improver on her handicap debut and will be fit after two runs late last year.
KEMPTON 6.15
ALJARYAAL (system – sire Siyouni, 4yo+ on Polytrack)
Progeny of the sire Siyouni have a good record on Polytrack and they also improve with time, tending to reach their full potential when aged four. Had we bet all those aged four or older on Polytrack we would have won 26 of our 130 bets (20% strike-rate) and made profit of £55.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners was only 17.33). ALJARYAAL won at Wolverhampton in November on his first start after leaving Owen Burrows and he did really well to finish a narrow second at Southwell last time after racing prominently from stall 1 of 14 (the winner and third both came from off the pace). He’s open to further improvement now that he has his first Polytrack outing for his current yard.
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