Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew has fired up his stats machine to find value selections for the horse racing action on Friday
There’s some fantastic racing on Friday November 12th and Andrew has six selections at Cheltenham, Worcester, Newcastle and Kempton:
WORCESTER 12.30
JOBSONFIRE (system – sire Sulamani, second run after a wind operation)
Progeny of Sulamani have a seven from 23 record on their second run following a wind operation and backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £38.20 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. JOBSONFIRE was pulled up here last month on his first run following the surgery but that would have been needed after a six-month break and he can cause an upset today.
WORCESTER 1.00
AKI BOMAYE (system – first run after a wind operation, tongue-tied)
Horses fitted with a tongue-tie for their first start following wind surgery have a good record and those hurdles/chasers aged between dive and seven, who’d had at least 90 days to get over the procedure, won48 of their 272 starts (17.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £123.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. AKI BOMAYE represents in-form Colin Tizzard and this point-to-point winner looks very interesting on his Rules chase debut.
WORCESTER 1.35
TWOMINUTES TURKISH (system – first run after a wind operation, tongue-tied)
TWOMINUTES TURKISH qualifies on the same wind op/tongue-tie angle as Aki Bomaye in the 1.00 race (see above) and this seasonal debutant has a good record when fresh.
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NEWCASTLE 2.00
NEPTUNE SEAS (system – sire Sea The Stars at Newcastle AW)
Progeny of the sire Sea The Stars have a great strike-rate on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, winning 32 of their 96 starts (33.3%) for a profit of £65.22 to a £1 level stake at SP. Charlie Appleby has won with seven of his 19 runners in the past fortnight and NEPTUNE SEAS, third in a 1m2f handicap at Newmarket last time, could benefit for the switch to the all-weather for the first time in the 2.00 race.
CHELTENHAM 4.00
SASHENKA (system – trends profile)
Five-year-olds who were relatively fancied in for their prep race (starting at 6-1 or shorter) have a good record in this two-mile novices’ handicap hurdle (+£49.33 in the past ten years) and the consistent SASHENKA will be hard to keep out of the frame with a clear round. He’s finished in the first three in his last ten completed starts and will relish the strong pace.
KEMPTON 5.30
UBERRIMA FIDES (system – sire Exceed And Excel, 2yo newcomers at Kempton)
Exceed And Excel’s juvenile offspring do well on the all-weather surface at Kempton, especially on their racecourse debuts. Backing them blind would have found 13 winners from 70 runners for a profit of £69.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. UBERRIMA FIDES is a big price for this mile contest but cost 62,000gns and could go well from a useful draw. His dam was beaten on her debut though she was sent off as favourite and lost all chance be rearing at the start. She won second time out at 15-2 and followed up in a Listed race.
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