Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. His punditry skills can also be heard on William Hill Radio. Andrew’s stats-based approach to betting finds regular winners and he has several selections on Saturday.
There’s some fantastic action on Saturday October 23rd and Andrew, who had an 11-1 winner with Baronial Pride at Dundalk yesterday, has unearthed some interesting betting angles at Newbury, Kelso and Chelmsford:
NEWBURY 2.00
LIGHT INFANTRY (system – sire Fast Company, soft/heavy going on the Flat)
Prior to yesterday’s racing had we supported all progeny of Fast Company when they raced on the Flat on soft or heavy going we’d have found 97 winners from 725 bets (13.4% strike-rate) and made a profit of £37.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished first or second on their latest outing were 34 from 152 (23.4%) for a profit of £123.63. LIGHT INFANTRY was a hugely impressive winner on his recent debut at Yarmouth and can take the step up in class in his stride.
KELSO 3.19
BIG RIVER (system – sire Milan, first time after a wind operation)
Milan offspring have a cracking record on their first start back following wind surgery, landing 16 of their 75 races for a huge profit of £124.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. BIG RIVER, whose Kelso record reads 112111B1 (6-8), could be overpriced at around the 7-1 mark. STYLISH MOMENT also qualifies on this system in the 5.35 at Kelso.
KELSO 3.54
TREASURED COMPANY (system – sire Fast Company, hurdles, good to soft or softer going)
Previously, I’ve discussed the fine record of sire Fast Company with his progeny on soft or heavy going on the Flat and they also do well over hurdles when the mud’s flying. Since the beginning of 2016, had we backed them on good to soft or going we’d have found 24 winners from 189 bets and made a profit of £21.18 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had raced within the past eight weeks returned a profit of +£45.05. TREASURED COMPANY, who won well in the first-time cheekpieces at Sedgefield 17 days ago, can follow up.
NEWBURY 5.25
FROZEN WATERS (system – sire No Nay Never, Tapeta last time out, different surface today)
Progeny of No Nay Never have a poor record on Tapeta and those who switched from that surface to a different one (i.e. turf, Polytrack or Fibresand) for their next outing have an 11 from 64 record for a profit of £53.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. FROZEN WATERS was reportedly never travelling when trailing home last of seven at Wolverhampton on his Tapeta debut last time and will be happier back on turf. He’s yet to win but has placed in two of his three outings on soft ground and is an each-way price.
CHELMSFORD 8.00
DUBAI VISION (system – Charlie Appleby gelded 3yo newcomers)
In the past five seasons Charlie Appleby has a 14 from 45 record with his gelded three-year-old newcomers and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £21.11 to a £1 level stake at SP. DUBAI VISION has a useful draw and could be up to making a successful debut.
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