Horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. His expert punditry can also be heard on William Hill Radio. Andrew’s comprehensive stats database has unearthed some interesting betting angles for Wednesday’s racing.
There’s a wealth of horse racing action on Wednesday October 20th and Andrew has found four bets at Newmarket, Worcester, Fontwell and Navan:
NEWMARKET 1.00
SOCIAL CONTACT (system – sire Night Of Thunder second-time out 2yos)
SOCIAL CONTACT ran respectably at Newcastle on last month’s debut, finishing just over two lengths behind the winner in fourth. Juvenile progeny of Night Of Thunder have a 31 from 163 (19%) record at the second time of asking and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £72.54 to a £1 level stake at SP. She could be well drawn in stall 3 of 10 and is bred to appreciate any ease in the ground.
WORCESTER 1.08
THE TOOJUMPA (systems – Fergal O’Brien stable switchers & Fergal O’Brien in amateur or conditional jockeys’ races in October)
Fergal O’Brien does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 38 of the 227 qualifiers since the beginning of 2010 (16.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £17.42 to a £1 level stake at SP. He also does well at this time of year in races confined to conditional or amateur riders, sending out six winners from 22 runners for a profit of £22.38. THE TOOJUMPA could be worth chancing on his first start since leaving John Groucott.
FONTWELL 3.05
DORKING LAD (system – chase debutants carrying top weight in handicaps, Class 4 or lower)
Young horses (seven-year-olds or younger) who make their chase debuts under top weight in handicap company have a good record, despite usually facing rivals with plenty more experience over fences. They do especially well in low-grade handicaps chases (Class 4 or below) in Britain, winning 104 of their 563 starts since 2010 (18.5%strike-rate) for a profit of £101.92 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Gary Moore-trained DORKING LAD, who broke his duck over hurdles at Newton Abbot in the spring when last seen, can make a winning start to his chase career.
NAVAN 4.05
VINLAND (system – ridden patiently over 1m4f at Roscommon last time out)
Early pace is the key ingredient to success over 1m4f at Roscommon and any horse who was beaten after being given a patient ride over that course and distance can usually be forgiven. Anner Castle (5-1) was a recent winner on this system and VINLAND, who was never able to land a blow in a Roscommon maiden last time out, is bred to appreciate today’s softer going. The application of first-time cheekpieces could also help.
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