The nominations arrived Wednesday morning (Feb. 2) for this year’s Rock and Roll Hall of Fame, and appropriate for Groundhog Day, it’s a lot of names we’ve seen before — with 10 out of the 17 names being repeat nominees, and six of those 10 holdovers from 2021’s shortlist.
Mixed in with the more familiar artists to Rock Hall voters, though, are a handful of first-timers — ranging from obvious rock icons to hitmakers more associated with the worlds of pop, country, R&B and rap — which means voters will have some interesting (and likely challenging) decisions to make in the months to come.
Here’s how Billboard breaks down the likeliness of the nominees for induction, listed from least to most likely.
FELA KUTI
It’s a tough ask for the Afrobeat icon to be inducted by straight vote, since despite his legendary stature, neither he nor his genre is likely to be familiar enough to many American Rock Hall voters for him to beat out more recognizable names. It seems more likely that after another couple nods, Kuti will eventually be inducted with an honorary award.
Odds: 8 to 1
JUDAS PRIEST
Metal standard-bearers for the better part of the last half century, this is now Judas Priest’s third time on the ballot — and potential fan momentum (or delayed anniversary plans) aside, it’s hard to see why this one would necessarily be the charm for them.
Odds: 8 to 1
EURYTHMICS
DEVO
Arty new wavers with a handful of hits that are just a tiny bit too skewed for the typical classic rock canon, and members who have continued to be industry fixtures in the decades since. Either could plausibly get in during any given year, but neither will ever be odds-on favorites, especially now that both have been nominated multiple times (twice for Eurythmics, three times for Devo).
Odds: 6 to 1
DIONNE WARWICK
Though she missed the cut last year, Ms. Warwick might be the kind of artist who actually has a slightly better chance each time she’s nominated, since the more familiar she is to voters the less conspicuous her presence — as a pop and R&B star with little obvious traditional rock cred — on the ballot becomes. She’s stayed in the public eye since her unexpected Twitter breakout last year, and she certainly has the good will, but it might take a couple more swings and misses with the voters before she really connects.
Odds: 6 to 1
KATE BUSH
Give her the slight edge over Eurythmics and Devo, given how Bush’s cultural stature still seems to grow every year — to the point that by the time she actually does get in, it’ll likely inspire countless “Wait, how was she not in already??” reactions. But as a left-field British pop star with few widely recognized stateside hits, Bush is still running an uphill battle here in her third nomination, even if it seems certain she’ll eventually get to the top.
Odds: 5 to 1
MC5
NEW YORK DOLLS
Still hanging around — the sixth time nominated for MC5, third for New York Dolls — these two proto-punk paragons seem like pretty traditional Rock Hall inductees, but actually getting them past the Rock Hall velvet rope has simply never been a voter priority. With less obvious RAWK than ever on the ballot, there’s a decent shot one of the two collects enough support from that lingering contingent to get their foot in the door, but it’s just as likely — maybe more so — that they’re going for nominations seven and four next year, respectively.
Odds: 5 to 1
LIONEL RICHIE
Tough one: As an enduring hitmaker and generally well-liked musical figure, Lionel Richie has the resume to go up against pretty much anyone not already in the Rock Hall. But despite the harder-edged funk of his ’70s days with the Commodores and his boundary-busting work in the country world in the decades since, to many voters he’s still likely the ubiquitous balladeer behind “Endless Love” and “Hello” — an association that may ultimately not prove particularly friendly for the voting bloc. Hence, he ends up in the middle of the pack here.
Odds: 4 to 1
A TRIBE CALLED QUEST
Another tricky pick to handicap. To some this will be a no-brainer: A Tribe Called Quest are one of the most universally acclaimed hip-hop acts of the ’90s, revered as innovators and beloved for their recognizable hits. But they weren’t rock stars the way recent hip-hop inductees like 2Pac or the Notorious B.I.G. were, and not populist enough to be immediately familiar to Rock Hall voters that don’t much care about hip-hop beyond what’s been made unavoidable to them. Again, we basically have to split the difference.
Odds: 4 to 1
RAGE AGAINST THE MACHINE
Can you believe this is already Rage’s fourth time on the ballot? It feels like they shouldn’t have even been eligible for long enough for that to be possible, but here we are. It still feels like they have to get in at some point — few ’90s groups pass the sort of boomer rock eye test with colors as flying, though perhaps few of those voters would necessarily have the stomach to get through all of Evil Empire — but it’s fair to ask why it hasn’t happened already at this point, especially as momentum for their much-delayed reunion tour has unfortunately fizzled.
Odds: 7 to 2
CARLY SIMON
Meanwhile, it’s pretty surprising that this is Simon’s first appearance on a ballot. For all of her memorable pop success over the years — including a run of iconic hits that spans from the early ’70s to the late ’80s — rock respect has been a little slower-coming, especially without a Tapestry or Sweet Baby James-type capital-C Classic album to her credit to really hang her legacy on. Still, the name recognition is considerable, history has generally looked fondly upon her biggest hits, and the Rock Hall is still looking to do whatever it can to make up for its endemic slighting of female artists in the past.
Odds: 3 to 1
PAT BENATAR
Similar to Carly Simon, Pat Benatar is an easily recognizable rock icon with hits to spare, but not the plaudits to match. Still, the stigma of classic MTV-era pop success is not what it used to be for the Rock Hall — as evidenced by the Go-Go’s’ induction last year — and Benatar passes perhaps the most important test for modern induction, which is unquestionably looking and feeling the part of a Rock and Roll Hall of Famer.
Odds: 2 to 1
DURAN DURAN
Speaking of classic MTV-era pop success — arguably no band had more of that than Duran Duran, the once critically reviled (or at least critically ignored) new wave overlords who played as big a part as anyone not already in the Rock Hall in setting the look and sound of the 1980s, and whose reputation has grown to near-bulletproof status over the past two decades. Some classic rockers may continue to sneer at them, but with a number of their glam-era predecessors (T. Rex, Roxy Music) now in the Rock Hall, it only makes sense that they should kick open the doors for the more fabulous acts from the synth-pop generation.
Odds: 2 to 1
EMINEM
As far as rapper rock stars go, you won’t get much more paradigmatic than Eminem, the biggest artist of the early 21st century, and perhaps the one who officially signaled the end of rock’s time as the music for young suburban white kids to listen to in order to piss off their parents. He’s got the hits and he’s got the respect, for sure — though his music is still extremely prickly and he’s never exactly been one to make nice within the industry, so there may still be a decent amount of reflexive grimacing at his name on the ballot from certain corners of the voting bloc.
Odds: 3 to 2
BECK
Feels like it should be automatic — a universally acclaimed ’90s wunderkind with both legitimate hits and Grammy success to his credit, and a run of alternative radio mega hits that have basically lasted right up to present day. Still, if Radiohead didn’t get in on their first try, then clearly no alt-era critics’ darlings with one massive crossover hit are locks for being one-and-ins.
Odds: 3 to 2
DOLLY PARTON
No, she’s not and has never been a traditional rocker — despite the Led Zeppelin and Collective Soul covers — but she’s arguably as widely beloved across all ages and demographics as any living entertainer right now, and she’s got a name that you just tend to put a check mark next to when you see it on a ballot, almost regardless of what you’re voting for. I mean, when was the last time it was advisable to bet against Dolly in anything?
Odds: Even money
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Tagged: Awards, entertainment blog, music, music blog, Rock and Roll Hall of Fame